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The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, with Chair Kevin Warsh holding a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Even though this meeting does not feature updated economic forecasts or a "dot plot" for interest rates—elements that traders usually prioritize—the outcome is still deemed highly significant for three main reasons.
1. Unusual Market Uncertainty: Current data from CME fed funds futures indicates that market participants are assigning about a 35% chance for a rate hike. This level of uncertainty so close to a decision is uncommon, as traders typically have a clear expectation of whether rates will be held steady, increased, or decreased. Citadel, a prominent hedge fund, anticipates a rate hike, arguing that such a move would eliminate forward guidance as a policy option, a stance long supported by Chair Warsh.
2. Rising Bond Yields: Both the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields have surpassed significant trendlines that marked a modest pullback since 2023. The recent breakout suggests a clear upward trajectory for yields.
3. Surge in Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices have surged nearly 20% this month, coinciding with stalled peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. This scenario raises the potential for renewed inflationary pressures following a brief reprieve in June, primarily caused by earlier declines in oil prices. This situation limits the Fed's ability to adopt a dovish tone.
Should the Fed opt for a rate increase or adopt a hawkish outlook, the already high bond yields could rise sharply, potentially creating challenges for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if the Fed downplays inflation risks despite the uptick in oil prices, it could lead to a significant rise in cryptocurrency values. Investors should remain vigilant!
For a detailed analysis of altcoins and derivatives today, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.
Trending Now
- Oil prices rise over 4% amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions (Reuters): Oil prices increased significantly on Wednesday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, following U.S. and Saudi strikes in Iraq and an intercepted missile attack on U.S. forces, alongside a decline in U.S. crude inventories.
- AI trade firm to reimburse $60 million in crypto liquidations (CoinDesk): Trade.xyz announced it will cover losses from liquidated trades due to a 19% drop in its SK Hynix perpetual futures contract, attributing the loss to a single trade in a low-volume Korean pre-market.
- Ionic Digital surges 26% in Nasdaq debut (CoinDesk): Ionic Digital (IOND), a bitcoin mining company formed from Celsius Network's bankruptcy, saw a 26% increase in its Nasdaq debut, bringing its valuation to $2.8 billion, marking the largest direct listing on the exchange since 2021.
- Chip stocks lose over $1 trillion as market selloff continues (CNBC): Major chip stocks have experienced a market cap decline exceeding $1 trillion this week, driven by a selloff led by Nvidia, which lost $238 billion. Other significant losses include SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron, with losses of $176 billion, $173 billion, and $113 billion, respectively.
Today's Market Signals
U.S. 10- and 2-year Treasury yields. (CoinDesk)The left chart illustrates fluctuations in the U.S. 10-year yield, a key borrowing cost, displayed in candlestick format. The right chart shows the two-year yield, which reacts more to short-term interest rate expectations.
Both yields have surpassed trendlines that have defined a pullback trend since October 2023.
This breakout indicates that the period of relative stability may be over, suggesting that the broader rise in interest rates that began in 2021 could soon accelerate.
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Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Since June, markets have shifted, with Binance maintaining a significant share (~55% of user funds, ~24% of spot trades) and attracting net inflows in early July, while the broader market saw outflows.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 22, 2026Since June, markets have shifted, with Binance maintaining a significant share (~55% of user funds, ~24% of spot trades) and attracting net inflows in early July, while the broader market saw outflows.
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