This month’s digest explores investor fears, asset dynamics over the month, and the current state of miners.

Theme of the Month

Month of Lost Hopes

February marked a definitive loss of hope for the crypto industry regarding a swift market recovery. The downturn that began in the fall of 2025 has intensified, leading to structural changes in the behavior of investors, institutional funds, and miners.

The drop in Bitcoin to $60,000 had a sobering effect even on the more optimistic market participants. A notable shift was observed in the rhetoric of Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan: while at the beginning of the month he entertained the idea of a quick end to the crypto winter, by the end of February he described the events as shocking and did not rule out further corrections. This shift reflected a broader change in sentiment—from cautious optimism to the recognition of a more prolonged bear cycle.

Price pressure was accompanied by deteriorating liquidity. The net outflow of stablecoins from Binance continued for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in trading activity. Simultaneously, investors withdrew funds from cryptocurrency funds: from February 16 to 20 alone, the total outflow amounted to about $288 million. Trading volumes fell to their lowest levels since the summer of 2025, confirming the market's shift to a more cautious mode.

Amid this backdrop, many professional investors strengthened their defensive strategies. Sigil Fund, for the first time, eliminated its exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum, reducing the share of risky assets to 40% of its portfolio. Such decisions indicate a reassessment of risk management models in light of worsening risk/return ratios.

The mining sector faced double pressure. In addition to the falling price of the leading cryptocurrency, external factors began to exert more influence on miners. In these conditions, some companies, like Bitdeer and Cango, began liquidating reserves, while others continued diversifying their businesses towards AI.

Conversely, some players took advantage of the correction to build positions. For instance, Strategy continued to buy Bitcoin, increasing its balance to 717,722 BTC. However, such moves are more the exception amid a broader shift to defensive strategies.

Additional pressure came from issues within specific ecosystems. Following a January hack, the DeFi aggregator Step Finance announced its shutdown which dealt a significant blow to Solana. The total value locked in the network (as of February 24) fell by 50% from its September peak to $6.28 billion. While these events are not directly linked to price dynamics, they highlight ongoing structural risks in the sector.

February did not bring sharp declines comparable to past crises. A more significant outcome of the month was the gradual restructuring of market participants' behavior—from hopes for a quick turnaround to cautious pragmatism.

Key Highlights: Numbers, Charts, News

Dynamics of Major Assets

ForkLog analyzed the dynamics of major assets, the DeFi sector, and ETFs. From February 1 to 26, the cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased from $2.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion, according to CoinGecko.

During the past month, the price of the first cryptocurrency on Binance briefly dipped below $60,000. As of February 26, digital gold was trading near $68,000.

At the beginning of February, Ethereum prices dropped to around $1,750, but by the end of the month, it had slightly recovered. At the time of writing, the second-largest cryptocurrency was priced at approximately $2,051.

By the end of the month, Bitcoin's market share stood at 56.1%, while Ethereum's was 10.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index indicated extreme fear.

DeFi

The total value locked in DeFi protocols plummeted from $107.6 billion to $92.4 billion. In the Ethereum ecosystem, the figure also declined from $61.89 billion to $55.22 billion.

The top protocol by volume is Aave ($27.37 billion), followed by Lido ($19.5 billion) and EigenCloud ($9.4 billion).

The trading volume on decentralized exchanges over the last 30 days totaled $325 billion. As of February 26, PancakeSwap held a 50.6% market share, while Uniswap accounted for 28.4%. In the Solana ecosystem, PumpSwap dominated with 69.3% market share.

ETF

In February, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $433.43 million, while total inflows since approval of the products reached $54.57 billion. The total net asset value under management is $87.6 billion.

IBIT from BlackRock accounts for $52.5 billion, followed by FBTC from Fidelity ($13.03 billion) and GBTC from Grayscale ($10.86 billion).

The outflow from Ethereum ETFs in February was $333.44 million. Since launch, these instruments have accumulated $11.64 billion. The total net asset value is $11.84 billion.

Leading in attracted funds are ETHA from BlackRock ($6.51 billion) and ETHE from Grayscale ($1.8 billion).

Mining

In February, Bitcoin's hashrate rapidly recovered to levels above 1 ZH/s (7 DMA) following January's drop caused by the winter storm's aftermath in the U.S.

The Foundry USA pool, whose clients were most affected by the storm, ultimately increased its share of global network power. The average for the month was around 31%. The MARA Pool of one of the largest American miners approached 5% (CloverPool).

However, the hashrate continues to show an overall downward trend as miners are forced to shut down equipment amid rising losses.

The corresponding mining difficulty metric reacted to the sharp movements in network computing power with similar dynamics. At the beginning of the month, there was a drop of ~11%, followed by a rebound of ~15% two weeks later.

Amid the stagnation of Bitcoin prices in the $65,000-70,000 range, the tightening of mining conditions has put additional pressure on profitability. The hash price remains below $30 per PH/s per day. Industry experts consider around $40 to be the breakeven point for large miners.

According to Antpool, at the current Bitcoin mining difficulty and an electricity cost of $0.08 per kWh, ASIC devices with an energy consumption ratio of no more than 15 J/TH are profitable. Only certain models from the Antminer S21 and S23 lines by Bitmine, as well as Sealminer A2 and A3 from Bitdeer, meet these specifications.

Major News

In February, the non-profit organization Ethereum Foundation (EF) began staking part of its treasury funds. This move has long been anticipated within the community, raising questions about why a significant volume of reserves was not being utilized for income generation.

In the first phase, the foundation will lock up a total of 70,000 ETH. The EF noted that this decision will help secure the Ethereum network while simultaneously funding the foundation's core operations and activities. Before the announcement, Santiment analysts reported that the share of ETH in staking reached a record 50%.

Additionally, the foundation presented an updated roadmap for protocol development for the current year, while developers planned seven hard forks by 2029. This indicates an effort to synchronize the foundation's financial strategy with the long-term technical development of the network.

This month, it was also revealed that French bank BNP Paribas chose the Ethereum blockchain for a pilot project on the tokenization of money market funds. The bank intends to use the network to issue digital representations of traditional financial instruments.

Alongside Ethereum initiatives, global tech players also attracted industry attention. In February, media reported that Meta plans to enter the stablecoin market. According to journalists, this move could intensify competition with the X platform and the Telegram messenger, which are developing related digital asset initiatives.

Other notable events in February:

  • An investment of $75 yielded a solo miner 3.125 BTC.
  • Barry Silbert predicted a shift in focus from Bitcoin towards Zcash.
  • The supply of USDT neared its largest monthly decline since 2022.
  • Standard Chartered forecasted Solana's growth to $2000.

Interview

ForkLog founder Anatoly Kaplan discusses how the crypto market has changed over the years and why Bitcoin's values remain relevant.

ForkLog: The Chinese New Year has recently arrived—a holiday symbolizing the start of spring and the rebirth of nature. Can we draw parallels with the current situation in the crypto market, or are investors still hiding from the Nian monster?

Anatoly: Judging by the emerging picture in the world, the Nian monster has, through ancient tantric practices, divided its essence into many parts for scaling and has manifested in various events and phenomena, from which investors have hidden their resources and themselves. The calendar update, especially the lunar one, always brings certain expectations and hopes. Given the dense event flow of the first two months of 2026, I believe that those investors who are not hiding in caves are already preparing for new opportunities and challenges.

ForkLog: In your opinion, who or what in the crypto industry can be compared to this monster?

Anatoly: I think it would be fair to give the Nian entity an impersonal form and say that, above all, it is the global uncertainty in markets and the world that has accompanied us for several years. Certainly, there are various specific factors, from regulation to the active actions of world leaders, but it is their combination that has led the industry to this state.

ForkLog: Some say Bitcoin has lost its qualities as "digital gold." Is this true, or is it just FUD amid the correction?

Anatoly: As ForkLog reported, digital gold is no longer as digital as it once was. The very fact that the tokenized version is popular in the market indicates that, in the eyes of most market participants, gold remains gold. It has just taken on a tokenized, digital form.

As a result of this shift, Bitcoin has simply become Bitcoin. I believe that the first cryptocurrency in 2026 no longer needs such comparisons and metaphors, which were primarily relevant during early adoption when few people had heard of or understood digital assets.

Regarding Bitcoin's "hedging" nature, it has not lost these properties. It's just that today, the risks that investors traditionally hedge against through gold have come to the forefront rather than through cryptocurrency. For instance, if investors are concerned about currency devaluation, it may be beneficial for them to buy Bitcoin; however, if they are worried about wars and armed conflicts, they buy gold. In my view, the current popularity of the precious metal is due to this.

ForkLog: Tokenized gold is in high demand. What role is then predetermined for the first cryptocurrency?

Anatoly: The primary driver of growth in 2024 and 2025 was demand from states. The need for Bitcoin will increase when serious problems arise with national currencies. Moreover, a significant number of transactions in global markets settled in gold indicates that this process may begin as early as this year.

And since we are comparing Bitcoin and tokenized precious metals, there is one important point: the first cryptocurrency has intrinsic value, while tokenized gold is only valuable because it is backed by physical metal. Without backing, it is not even a meme coin.

In the future, the system may evolve into a configuration where new money is backed by a basket of gold and Bitcoin. It is unlikely that any other digital asset will be added, but such a backing format could prove to be a very stable system in the coming decades.

I believe we will soon see at least a few examples of fiat currencies that are, in some proportion, backed exclusively by Bitcoin. For instance, 1 satoshi = 1 fiat state note. This is a quite logical development of the narrative surrounding national Bitcoin reserves.

ForkLog: What are your thoughts on the trend of tokenization in general? Do you think that digital products of the real world are trying to replace the original "values" of blockchain technology?

Anatoly: Tokenization, in my opinion, as it is currently developing, is a natural process of global resource redistribution in the interests of large capital. It can be compared to post-Soviet privatization, where "the market decided" in favor of new capitalists and Western investors who received favorable conditions for investing in key sectors of the economy, leading to their subsequent monopolization.

Now market participants risk finding themselves in a similar situation, where only the right investors and insiders will benefit from the advantages and prospects of a major redistribution. The main risk is the real legal guarantees surrounding tokenized assets.

For example, can a citizen living in Iran, who buys tokens for real estate in Miami, be sure that their property rights will not be revised for political reasons beyond their control? I think this question is familiar to many of our readers, including those who do not hold Iranian citizenship.

Regarding values, I believe that tokenization does not encroach on them in any way. However, to some extent, the primitive nature of tokenization may somewhat devalue more complex systems and mechanisms that exist in the market. Technically, tokenization has been possible for a long time, dating back to the era of Colored Coins, so for some techies and crypto enthusiasts, it is simply boring. Hence the discussions about values.

ForkLog: What is the role of the US dollar in the current crypto paradigm?

Anatoly: The global function of the dollar remains the same—financial colonization of third countries in exchange for paper for resources. Bitcoin is the primary digital resource in this case. Large funds like BlackRock are actively shedding paper in favor of real resources. Most of what they accumulate are real resources.

If the world's largest investment fund is getting rid of dollars in favor of oil, cryptocurrencies, gold, and so on, it highlights what is happening in reality.

At the same time, locally in the cryptocurrency market, the dollar continues to be the primary medium of exchange. Most stablecoins are dollar-denominated, and USDT is the "number one cryptocurrency" for most users. Sometimes it may seem that all these years of development and startups have converged into one point—a dollar analog on the blockchain. Although, of course, this is not the case.

ForkLog: We no longer hear comparisons of the crypto market to the Wild West, and digital assets are now perceived more ordinarily. Has global regulation benefited the industry?

Anatoly: Global regulation has allowed Bitcoin to be integrated into the system, which was the key objective. In the next stage of development, Bitcoin should become a tool for a global revolution aimed at overthrowing political and financial elites by representatives of the new working class. Therefore, I would move away from thinking in terms of industry and its benefits. Bitcoin is a tool for a global revolution that will be used by new network communities to build alternative branches of reality.

If we talk about the ordinariness and benefits of regulation, I cannot fully agree or disagree with this thesis. The Wild West has not disappeared; it has become more blurred along with the industry's boundaries. Various crimes involving digital currencies have increased significantly, and they have taken on more serious scales.

For example, ForkLog constantly monitors the issue of scam centers in Southeast Asia. When we read these materials, it is hard to say that regulation can impact these problems at all. As a tool, digital currencies have gained global popularity and demand, and accordingly, they are increasingly used for illegal activities.

ForkLog: With the emergence of crypto ETFs in 2024, maximalists and ideologues began to fear the institutional takeover of Bitcoin. Considering the past two years, has the arrival of major players been as destructive as described?

Anatoly: Certainly, for some market participants, the arrival of institutions in the industry has created problems, including direct financial losses. This pertains to the influence and control they have undoubtedly managed to gain to some extent. Should we fear this influence? Yes, it can complicate usage scenarios and has already led to much greater market controllability and enhanced AML procedures. All these processes require the formation of new layers of bureaucracy, often not in favor of the market.

Large players accelerate certain phases of industry development, primarily due to the liquidity volumes they bring. Have exchange manipulations broken down due to the arrival of institutions? No, they have become more costly and complex. What an unknown user could do ten years ago under the nickname 40rtwawa777, possessing a sufficient volume of Bitcoins, is now done by those very institutions.

Have the mechanisms for exchanging crypto for fiat and vice versa broken down? No, but in some cases, it has become more complicated due to regulation: somewhere there are restrictions, somewhere bans, resulting in increased operational costs.

ForkLog: In conclusion, how have the values of the crypto community and your personal values changed over the past few years?

Anatoly: The community's values have shifted to a more practical plane, and many of the tasks that participants faced ten years ago have already been realized. Primarily, I refer to the fact that a convenient infrastructure has been created, along with thousands of projects. Digital currencies have transformed from an underground topic into an everyday financial tool.

Today, many more people know about Bitcoin and can use digital currencies. In this process, the ideological component concerning decentralization, resistance to censorship, and so on has significantly weakened and, in some cases, has been marginalized. We have discussed this extensively in ForkLog. Regarding my personal feelings, I can say that "don’t trust, verify" has not lost its value for me.

Longs of the Month

The Silicon Curtain

The shortage of "hardware" is beginning to reach alarming proportions: sales of current graphics cards are increasingly focused on AI developers, while other sectors are starting to experience a lack of production capacity. We explored how this situation will impact the blockchain industry and why the Bitcoin network is gaining an advantage over its competitors.

Why Do We Need Schools?

The answer seems simple: to learn. But it raises other questions: "What? How? Where?" and so on. We reflect on how the familiar education system has taken its current form and why knowledge is the only investment that won't lead to losses in any situation on the eternally unstable market.

Consciousness—An Atavism

On the 20th anniversary of Peter Watts' novel "Blindsight," we reread this book about intelligence without consciousness and found that much in this masterpiece of "hard" science fiction has come true in the era of AI. Dedicated to everyone who talks to chatbots as if they are living beings.

Also:

  • The Brazilian Phenomenon: How the Largest Country in South America Became the Region's Main Crypto Hub.
  • Shining and Shining: What’s Happening in the Precious Metals Market.
  • Object 734: A Brief Report from a Future You Probably Won't Like.
  • Tokens and Tanks: When RWAs Can't Withstand the Pressure of the Real World.

Artificial Intelligence

The main event of February was the publication of a report by Citrini Research, in which analysts warned of a potential economic collapse due to artificial intelligence. The document revealed new fears for investors and led to a sell-off of stocks in software and payment service sectors.

The report stated that AI agents could significantly increase corporate profits and render human labor unnecessary. Such a situation would provoke a recession:

  • The S&P 500 index could drop by 38% from its historical peak;
  • Unemployment could exceed 10%;
  • The private credit market could collapse;
  • Mortgage agreements would be "cracking at the seams."

However, this is still a hypothetical scenario. Meanwhile, Sam Altman stated that some firms are using artificial intelligence as a pretext for layoffs that would have occurred regardless.

Among other important events in February:

  • Uma Protocol and Across Protocol developer Alex launched the RentAHuman service—allowing AI agents to hire people.
  • SpaceX delayed its Mars colonization plans and shifted focus to building a "self-developing city" on the Moon.
  • OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger faced harassment in the crypto community for his reluctance to launch or support a token for the project.
  • The lending protocol Moonwell lost $1.78 million due to an oracle settings error. Smart contract auditor Pashov linked the incident to vibe coding via Claude Opus 4.6.
  • Chinese company Unitree Robotics gained attention after its performance at the Spring Festival gala and plans to sell up to 20,000 humanoid robots by 2026.
  • OpenAI cut its computational spending plan for 2030 from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion following the failure of the Stargate project.