Countries are increasingly utilizing export controls on quantum technologies not just as protective measures but as part of broader industrial strategies, according to an analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The authors estimate that the U.S. and its allies are aiming to do more than merely limit competitors’ access to sensitive technologies; they are attempting to shape the future structure of the quantum industry proactively. IISS refers to this approach as "preemptive deterrence," emphasizing its focus on dual-use technologies.
Control Shifts to Supply Chains
Unlike traditional export controls, restrictions are now being imposed even before a mature commercial market emerges, analysts noted. These controls encompass not only finished quantum computers but also the equipment, materials, software, and technical knowledge required for their development.
IISS highlights key pressure points within supply chains, including cryogenic systems, isotopically enriched silicon-28, control electronics, and other components that are produced by a limited number of suppliers.
For instance, superconducting quantum computers necessitate cooling to temperatures near absolute zero, a process that only a few companies, such as Finland’s Bluefors and the UK’s Oxford Instruments, can manage on an industrial scale.
According to IISS, these "critical nodes" enable more effective application of licensing restrictions, although no single country controls the entire quantum supply chain.
Limitations of Export Controls
The authors argue that while export controls may slow competitors' access to specific technologies, they cannot halt their overall development. As the supplier base widens, the restrictions tend to create delays and additional costs rather than acting as outright prohibitions.
IISS also warns of a potential counterproductive effect: barriers may encourage competitors to develop their own alternatives. For example, Chinese organizations have expedited their work on domestic dissolution refrigerators and materials for quantum applications.
Thus, the mere existence of export controls does not guarantee technological leadership, the analysts emphasized. Such measures must be accompanied by industrial policy, investment screening, and support for companies that hold strategic positions within the supply chain.
"The critical question is no longer which technologies to prohibit, but which nodes of our own ecosystem to support," the analysis states.
China Establishes Standards
In June, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formed the MIIT/TC10 committee for quantum information standardization. According to the document, the committee will work on developing and revising industry standards in areas such as basic quantum technologies, quantum computing, quantum communication, and high-precision measurements.
As noted by The Quantum Insider, the establishment of this committee aligns with China’s broader strategy, which encompasses not only research but also the technical regulations necessary for the commercialization and industrial application of quantum technologies.
Standards are crucial for ensuring compatibility of equipment, terminology, testing, and procurement. On an international scale, they also allow nations and companies to influence how future technologies will be designed and utilized.
Previously, analysts from the Special Competitive Studies Project concluded that the U.S. maintains a slight edge over China in the quantum race, although the gap is narrowing. They attributed the standing of both countries to not only scientific achievements but also industrial capabilities, workforce, market dynamics, and governmental leverage.
In July, IBM urged governments to broaden their quantum strategies to encompass not just computing but also communication, sensors, post-quantum cryptography, workforce development, and supply chains.