Countries are increasingly using export controls on quantum technologies as part of broader industrial strategies, according to IISS.
Recent analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that nations are increasingly implementing export controls on quantum technologies as part of wider industrial strategies, rather than solely for protectionist reasons.
The report suggests that the U.S. and its allies are not only trying to restrict rivals' access to sensitive technologies but are also looking to actively influence the future of the quantum industry. This strategy, termed "preemptive deterrence," focuses on dual-use technologies.
Supply Chain Control Focus
Unlike conventional export controls, which are generally applied to established markets, these new restrictions are being imposed even before a commercial market has fully developed. They cover a range of items, including finished quantum computers, essential equipment, materials, software, and technical expertise needed for quantum technology advancement.
IISS identifies critical pressure points within the quantum supply chain, such as cryogenic systems and specialized silicon, which are produced by a limited number of suppliers. For example, superconducting quantum computers require cooling to extremely low temperatures, a capability that only a few companies, like Finland’s Bluefors and the UK’s Oxford Instruments, can provide on a large scale.
These "critical nodes" allow for more effective licensing restrictions, even though no single nation dominates the entire quantum supply chain.
Challenges of Export Controls
While export controls may delay competitors' access to particular technologies, the IISS argues they cannot completely stop overall technological progress. As the number of suppliers grows, these restrictions tend to result in delays and increased costs rather than outright bans.
Moreover, there is a risk that such barriers could motivate competitors to develop their own solutions. For instance, Chinese entities are reportedly accelerating their efforts on domestic technologies like dissolution refrigerators for quantum applications.
The analysts stress that the mere existence of export controls does not equate to technological superiority. Effective measures must be complemented by supportive industrial policies, investment assessments, and backing for key companies in the supply chain.
"The critical question is no longer which technologies to prohibit, but which nodes of our own ecosystem to support," the report states.
China's Standardization Efforts
In June, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established the MIIT/TC10 committee to develop and revise industry standards for quantum information. This initiative is part of China's broader strategy, which includes not only research but also the necessary technical regulations for the commercialization and industrial application of quantum technologies.
Setting standards is vital for ensuring compatibility in equipment and terminology, as well as for facilitating testing and procurement. Internationally, these standards enable countries and companies to shape the future design and use of quantum technologies.
Previously, analysts from the Special Competitive Studies Project indicated that the U.S. holds a slight advantage over China in the quantum sector, although the gap is closing. This status is attributed to both nations' scientific achievements and their industrial capabilities, workforce, market conditions, and government influence.
In July, IBM called on governments to expand their quantum strategies to include not just computing but also communication, sensors, post-quantum cryptography, workforce development, and supply chain considerations.
