Summary
- Myriad's predictors lean towards a "dump" for ETH, anticipating a drop to $1,500 over a rise to $3,000.
- In the last week, the likelihood of a decline has risen by 13% as ETH hovers just above $2,000.
- The cryptocurrency's recent downturn has been driven by nearly $500 million in ETF outflows during an 11-day slump.
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market platform managed by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, are increasingly leaning towards a bearish outlook for Ethereum. They now favor a price drop to $1,500 over a recovery towards $3,000.
Currently, Ethereum is priced around $2,057, reflecting a 0.8% decrease within the past 24 hours and more than a 10% drop over the past month. This ongoing decline has led to a shift in sentiment on Myriad, with 63% favoring a “dump” to $1,500, marking a rise of over 13% in just a week.
Despite BitMine Immersion Technologies, a leading treasury firm for Ethereum, aggressively acquiring ETH—having purchased $230 million worth last week to increase its total holdings to over $11 billion—this does not seem to be translating into broader demand for the cryptocurrency.
Ethereum ETFs are experiencing an 11-day streak of net outflows, with nearly $500 million exiting these investment vehicles during this period, as reported by data from Farside.
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, commented to Decrypt, "We are currently in a bear market that impacts nearly all crypto assets, including Ethereum. However, Ethereum still holds a significant portion of the stablecoin and tokenized asset markets, and financial institutions continue to develop on the Ethereum platform. We anticipate that Ethereum will see a price increase when the overall crypto market begins to recover from the bear phase."
The extent of any potential recovery remains uncertain. Predictors on Polymarket estimate a 51% chance that Ethereum will retrace to $1,500 by 2026, while higher targets like $3,500 and $4,000 have lower probabilities of 26% and 16%, respectively.
Currently, ETH, which achieved an all-time high of $4,946 in August, is nearly 59% below that peak. In comparison, Bitcoin is about 40% off its record price of over $126,000 reached in October.