Ethereum May Plunge Another 25% Before Recovering: Analysis

Summary

• Ethereum's price fell by 8% today, dropping below the crucial $2,000 mark and hitting an intraday low of around $1,814.
• Traders on Myriad are forecasting a 71% probability that ETH will plunge to $1,500 before recovering to $3,000, with these odds having increased by 25% recently.
• Technical indicators point to bearish trends, with the RSI showing weakness, and notable lack of support between $1,700 and the $1,400–$1,500 range.

The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline, with Bitcoin falling below $67,000, its lowest since April, and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is experiencing even steeper losses.

Since dipping below $2,000 on June 2, Ethereum has struggled to regain its footing. Contributing factors include the exit of prominent developers from the Ethereum Foundation, sales from major supporters, and a streak of 15 days of net outflows from Ethereum ETFs.

On Myriad, a prediction platform, traders have assigned a 71% likelihood that Ethereum will drop to $1,500 before any recovery, reflecting a marked increase in bearish sentiment since mid-May.

Price Analysis of Ethereum

Ethereum's trading activity today illustrates a clear trend. Starting at $2,004, it peaked briefly at $2,018 before plummeting to an intraday low of $1,814.90, reinforcing the ongoing downward trajectory.

The price action since Ethereum's all-time high of $4,954 in August 2025 continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. A critical support level at $1,700 is evident; if ETH cannot attract buyers to rebound above this level, it could face significant declines towards the $1,400 range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 34.26, indicating bearish market conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 21.6, suggesting a weak trend with potential for further declines.

Despite a long-term bullish signal indicated by the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, Ethereum is trading below both averages, which are now acting as resistance. The narrowing gap between these averages could lead to a bearish “death cross.”

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows a reading of -0.35, suggesting ongoing volatility and indecision in the market, as buyers and sellers compete for control.

While some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, citing the potential for mean-reversion due to the current RSI and price drop, immediate macroeconomic triggers for a rebound are lacking. Institutional sentiment has shifted away from cryptocurrencies towards sectors like AI, further complicating the outlook for Ethereum.

The ongoing bearish sentiment is exemplified by the recent outflows from Ethereum ETFs and the consistent pattern of lower highs and lows. The breach of the previously stable $2,000 support level signals that buyers face significant challenges ahead.

Disclaimer: The insights provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice.