Summary
- Today, Ethereum experienced an 8% decline, breaking through the critical $2,000 support level and reaching an intraday low of approximately $1,814.
- Traders on Myriad are now predicting a 71% chance that ETH will fall to $1,500 before rebounding to $3,000, with these odds increasing nearly 25% recently.
- Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook: the RSI indicates a bearish trend, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has signaled a downturn, and there is a lack of significant support between $1,700 and the $1,400–$1,500 range.
Recent days have seen a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin dropping below $67,000, marking its lowest point since April, and ETFs facing substantial losses.
While Bitcoin's short-term prospects appear bleak, Ethereum—ranked as the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap—is faring even worse.
Since falling under $2,000 on June 2, Ethereum has not recovered. Factors contributing to this bearish sentiment include the departure of key developers from the Ethereum Foundation, notable supporters selling their holdings, and Ethereum ETFs experiencing 15 consecutive days of net outflows.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan, the current betting odds reflect a significant bearish sentiment, with traders assigning a 71% likelihood that Ethereum will drop to $1,500 before any recovery, marking a 25% increase in these odds since mid-May.
Analysis of Ethereum's Price Movement
Today's price action for Ethereum is strikingly clear. Starting at $2,004, it briefly peaked at $2,018—just surpassing the broken $2,000 level—before plummeting to an intraday low of $1,814.90, indicating a strong rejection and continuation of the downward trend.
Ethereum price data. Image: TradingviewThe established trend of lower highs and lower lows since Ethereum's all-time high of $4,954 in August 2025 remains intact.
A crucial level around $1,700 is evident on the chart. Should ETH fail to attract buyers and stage a rebound at or above this level today or in the upcoming sessions, there is minimal support between the current price and the $1,400 cluster, which previously served as significant resistance-turned-support in early 2023.
This represents a potential decline of about 25% from current levels, aligning with predictions from the market.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34.26, indicating bearish conditions and nearing oversold territory. The RSI measures market conditions on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 typically indicating an excessively sold market. Although we are not there yet, a mid-30s reading does not guarantee an impending bounce; it simply indicates that sellers have dominated for some time, with potential for further declines before reaching oversold levels.
Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 21.6, classified as "weak" (indicating slower price drops than before) but trending upwards. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 confirming a developing trend. Its gradual rise while ETH's price declines is not a positive sign for traders.
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) present a complex scenario. The chart indicates that the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, which is a "golden cross" on a long-term basis. However, ETH is currently trading below both averages, which are now acting as resistance rather than support. The 50-day EMA is around $2,194, while the 200-day EMA is near $2,510, both acting as ceilings at present prices.
The narrowing gap between the two EMAs could lead to a “death cross”—the opposite of a golden cross and a traditionally bearish signal in technical analysis.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is currently active, showing a momentum reading of -0.35. This indicator activates when volatility decreases—similar to a coiled spring—and measures the direction of energy release. This indicator may suggest price compression prior to a bounce, although it does not guarantee a directional change, indicating ongoing contention between buyers and sellers that has kept prices stagnant.
Are we heading for a rebound or a further decline? That remains to be seen.
A bullish perspective hinges on the idea of mean-reversion. With the RSI at 34, a squeeze in effect, and ETH down approximately 60% from its all-time high, some argue that the selling has been excessive. A macroeconomic relief event—such as a softer jobs report, a signal from the Fed to pivot, or a de-escalation in the Middle East—could trigger a sharp short-squeeze rebound. The $1,700 area also represents a significant psychological barrier that bulls will strive to defend.
Additionally, there is optimism regarding Ethereum's roadmap. The network's Glamsterdam upgrade, confirmed by the Ethereum Foundation for Q3 2026, aims for a major gas limit increase and up to 10,000 transactions per second on its layer-1 network. If institutional sentiment stabilizes around this development, buying interest could return before prices decline further. Some investors might view the current price drop as an opportunity rather than a warning signal.
However, the main challenge for a rebound is that none of the macroeconomic triggers are immediate, and current technical indicators do not support a reversal. The ongoing 15-day outflow streak for Ethereum ETFs reflects a bearish sentiment in the market. The withdrawal of institutional funds signifies a broader shift away from crypto towards AI equities, where earnings visibility is more tangible compared to Ethereum's current network utility.
The chart structure also poses challenges for buyers. Ethereum has consistently recorded lower highs and lower lows, with every attempt to bounce back since breaking the $2,500 level being reversed. The $2,000 support level, which held firm for weeks, was decisively breached yesterday.
Ethereum price data. Image: TradingviewDisclaimer
The opinions and insights provided by the author are intended for informational purposes only and do not represent financial, investment, or other forms of advice.