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Economist Warns of Bitcoin Plunge to $60,000 Due to Trade War

Macro expert warns Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 due to trade tensions, while institutional demand remains strong amidst ETF outflows.

Sarah Chen
January 22, 2026 1 min read
Economist Warns of Bitcoin Plunge to $60,000 Due to Trade War

Macroeconomic expert Luke Gromen forecasts a potential decline in Bitcoin's value to $60,000 due to escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and the EU. He suggests that a combination of massive sell-offs and institutional withdrawals could emerge as the U.S. faces international isolation and enters a possible recession.

Gromen also pointed out that institutional investors might not propel Bitcoin's price to new heights without a significant fundamental trigger. He stated, "If you expect institutional investors to push the price from $90,000 to $150,000, that’s unlikely to happen without a serious catalyst. They will wait." Bitcoin would require an increase of over 65% from its current price near $89,800 to reach that level.

Signs of Ongoing Institutional Demand

Despite the gloomy outlook, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytics firm CryptoQuant. He noted that U.S. custody wallets typically hold between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin each, providing insights into institutional demand. Over the past year, institutions have acquired approximately 577,000 Bitcoin valued at $53 billion, with inflows continuing.

Trouble for Bitcoin ETFs

In a troubling development, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a loss of $708.7 million in the latest trading session, marking the largest daily outflow in two months. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC were the most affected, with significant withdrawals noted. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs faced outflows as investors sought to reduce risk amid worsening macro conditions, according to analyst Rachel Lucas.

On January 21, Bitcoin's price dipped below $88,000 in response to stock market turmoil stemming from rising U.S.-EU tensions. However, prices recovered somewhat following the announcement of a trade agreement regarding Greenland, alongside news of no new tariffs from President Trump against European imports. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, remarked on the crypto market's resilience amid these challenges. Despite the current climate, optimism remains, with Cathie Wood of ARK Invest projecting Bitcoin could reach $761,900 by 2030.

Economist Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $60,000 — Mercation