Your day-ahead look for June 18, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 18, 2026, 11:10 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on A strengthening dollar poses challenges for bitcoin. (Gerd Altmann/Pixabay)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Bitcoin BTC$63,901.83 and the Dollar Index (DXY) are diverging, with the latter poised for a significant breakout that may strengthen bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
The leading cryptocurrency is facing downward pressure for the third consecutive day, trading around $63,900, reflecting a nearly 1% decline since midnight UTC. The overall market is largely experiencing similar downturns, although a few cryptocurrencies like HASH, XLM, and ENA have seen gains exceeding 7%.
The Dollar Index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, has risen by 0.26% to reach 100.66, following a 0.8% increase on Wednesday. Notably, the index is on the cusp of breaking out of a trading range that has persisted for 13 months.
This type of technical setup often results in increased momentum trading, leading to further price increases. Typically, a stronger dollar exerts downward pressure on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin.
Historically, bitcoin has shown a tendency to move inversely to the dollar. The correlation coefficient between BTC and the DXY over the past 90 days was recently recorded at minus 0.82.
The dollar's strength is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance expressed on Wednesday, which has raised fears of potential interest rate hikes in the U.S. If the dollar continues to strengthen, bitcoin may remain under pressure, possibly revisiting the crucial 200-week simple moving average at $62,258.
Economists from the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken shared with CoinDesk that historical data indicates that dips below this average have typically resulted in a median return exceeding 100% over one and three years. Conversely, some analysts predict a more significant selloff if the price drops below this average. Caution is advised!
For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- U.S. and Iran sign preliminary agreement to end conflict, but more negotiations are needed (CNN): This agreement obligates the U.S. and Iran to finalize a deal within 60 days and permits Iran to resume oil exports while outlining terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Warsh revamps Fed communication strategies, leaving markets uncertain about rate outlook (WSJ): The new Fed chair has streamlined the bank's policy statement, refrained from providing a personal rate forecast, and initiated five task forces to review various aspects of the Fed's communication and economic analysis.
- Bitcoin and ether decline following a hawkish Fed, despite the Iran deal boosting stocks (CoinDesk): Analysts predict that bitcoin will remain within a range of $60,000 to $70,000 unless a significant catalyst emerges.
Today’s signal
Dollar Index's daily chart. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the daily price movements of the Dollar Index (DXY) in candlestick format since late 2024.
The index is currently trading above 100.60, a critical level where sellers have consistently outnumbered buyers since May 2025, leading to extended sideways trading.
A decisive breakout from this 13-month trading range could lead to heightened buying momentum and further strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a new all-time high.
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