Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly boost economic productivity, but its noticeable impact will only emerge in a few years. This view was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg Television by Jim Reid, head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank.

“In my entire career, I have never encountered a technology with such potential for productivity enhancement as AI. However, companies will need several years to fully integrate it into their processes and realize its maximum benefits,” he noted.

Reid acknowledged that after the rapid rise in AI company stocks in the tech sector, a correction may be on the horizon. However, the long-term impact of the technology will extend beyond market cycles — the world will undergo an adaptation period that may be accompanied by high volatility and a reassessment of expectations.

The expert also believes that the development of large language models (LLMs) will not lead to mass job losses. He stated that previous technological breakthroughs raised similar concerns but ultimately did not reduce overall employment levels. Reid is confident that AI will serve more as a tool for enhancing labor efficiency rather than replacing human workers.

He specifically assessed the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. The expert explained that over the past 250-300 years, the introduction of new technologies has increased productivity but has not led to a sustained decrease in inflation. Despite the rise in business efficiency, the development of AI may also bring additional inflationary risks.

Investments Outpace Returns

Reid's position aligns with the conclusions of several major financial institutions. In their annual World Outlook, Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the current pace of technological development is likely to lead to a significant increase in productivity, but its real effects will only be felt after 2026.

Meanwhile, investment in AI infrastructure continues to grow. Wall Street analysts' consensus forecast for capital expenditures by the largest tech companies this year is $527 billion, up from the $465 billion expected at the beginning of the third-quarter earnings season.

Source: Goldman Sachs.

However, the scale of investments currently outpaces measurable economic effects. Goldman Sachs noted that spending on AI supports investments in equipment and infrastructure, but its contribution to GDP growth remains limited. According to the bank's estimates, by 2026, these investments will add about 0.3 percentage points to real economic growth and 0.1 percentage points to measurable growth.

It is worth mentioning that at the end of June, experts from the Bank for International Settlements shared similar observations, identifying risks to the financial system stemming from the AI boom.