D-Wave Quantum has unveiled a roadmap for the phased development of quantum systems. By 2032, the company plans to create a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 100 logical qubits.
According to the press release, the system is expected to perform over 1 million operations and support initial applications in quantum chemistry and AI.
Key milestones in D-Wave's plan include:
- 2026: A system with 17 physical qubits and a logical error rate that is half that of classical systems;
- 2027: A 49-qubit system with an anticipated 20-fold reduction in errors;
- 2028: A 181-qubit system with an expected 2000-fold decrease in errors;
- 2030: A system with 10 logical qubits designed for the first fault-tolerant algorithms.
The company’s approach is based on a superconducting two-rail architecture for qubits, enabling quantum error correction cycles to be performed 100 to 1000 times faster than systems based on neutral atoms or trapped ions.
D-Wave claims that fault detection is built directly into the qubits, allowing for the identification of about 90% of computational inaccuracies at the initial level. This solution significantly reduces the number of physical qubits needed for correction.
“The future of commercial quantum computing based on the gate model will be determined not only by the number of physical qubits but also by the ability to reliably perform large-scale computations for real applications. While much of the industry focuses on scaling physical qubits, D-Wave employs a differentiated approach aimed at reducing errors at the hardware level,” the company stated.
D-Wave also announced achieving 99.9% accuracy for two-qubit operations, with one physical error occurring for every 1000 operations.
The company highlighted a metric called Lambda, which describes how quickly the error rate decreases with the addition of corrections. D-Wave estimates that the average industry figure is around 2, while their target is set at 10.
It’s worth noting that in May, experts questioned D-Wave's claims of quantum supremacy.