Due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, oil prices have surged over 60% since the beginning of the year. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost warned that this geopolitical shock could affect inflation and create a negative environment for cryptocurrencies.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Tensions: Implications for BTC and Markets
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 9, 2026
“Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/DO42U9CWFk
The rally in commodity prices was triggered by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil exports and nearly 35% of all maritime shipments pass. Any incident that blocks or hampers transit immediately impacts prices.
The expert noted that this trend will inevitably affect inflation and hit financial markets sensitive to supply shocks. For volatile and risky assets like Bitcoin, such an environment is particularly unfavorable.
“Historically, periods of rising oil prices often coincide with the concluding phases of the first cryptocurrency's cycles,” he stated.
“Oil Shock”
The rise in oil prices above $115 per barrel has caused panic in global markets. Asian indices opened lower, as the region relies on energy imports from the Middle East.
The Japanese Nikkei 225 plummeted over 6%, while the South Korean Kospi lost around 8%.
Amid the downturn, trading activity on the Bitflyer exchange in Japan surged, outpacing global platforms. The volume increased by 200% — compared to 119% on Coinbase and 82% on Binance.
In South Korea, trading activity was more subdued: volumes on Upbit rose by 32%, while Bithumb saw an increase of 52%.
As traditional markets faced sell-offs, Japanese traders were more active in Bitcoin. During Asian trading hours, the first cryptocurrency rose by 2.05% against the yen (compared to +1.86% against the dollar and +1.64% against the won).
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,800. On March 9, the price briefly dropped to $65,700.
Unexpected Resilience
Analysts at QCP described Bitcoin's performance as “unexpectedly resilient,” despite the overall weakness in risk assets and global stock markets. Amid escalating tensions around Iran, the latter have shifted to a defensive mode.
QCP Market Colour, 09 March 2026
— QCP (@QCPgroup) March 9, 2026
Missiles Over Markets
1/ Iran tensions failed to cool over the weekend, pushing oil above $115 on fears of sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East instability. Global equities have turned defensive.
Meanwhile, some crypto investors continue to hedge against declines, primarily through short-term contracts at levels of $61,000-64,000.
“However, the flow of options indicates a more complex picture. The purchase of a 500x BTC straddle expiring on April 24 at a price of $72,000 suggests expectations of high volatility rather than an inevitable crash,” the experts added.
They also noted the structure of open interest for March. The highest concentration is in call options with strike prices of $75,000 and $125,000. Achieving these levels is unlikely, according to QCP. However, maintaining such positions indicates sustained demand.
“Bitcoin is still far from the status of 'digital gold,' but its role as a 'digital safe haven' is becoming increasingly evident, especially in Gulf countries where currency volatility and political instability are common,” the analysts concluded.
Hyperliquid
The perpetual contract linked to crude oil on Hyperliquid under the ticker CL-USDC reached a local peak of around $117 (+20% in one day), before correcting to $101. The daily trading volume exceeded $1 billion.
According to Pune Analytics, on March 8, the total daily trading volume of oil derivatives on Hyperliquid in the HIP-3 segment reached $720 million, marking the highest level in the history of weekend sessions.
Today is the highest volume day in terms of HIP-3 volume on a weekend, and this is driven by @tradexyz.
— Pine Analytics (@PineAnalytics) March 9, 2026
Between November 20th and January 12th, tradexyz volume was relatively flat at about $300M–$500M on weekdays and $50M–$100M on weekends. On January 12th, silver started its… pic.twitter.com/hU5ZYWqygS
The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has triggered a surge in activity on the platform. The U.S. and Israel began a war against Iran over the weekend when traditional exchanges were closed. As a result, traders massively switched to Hyperliquid, which offers 24/7 trading.
In January, the platform experienced a similar wave of popularity amid a silver rally. During that time, the asset surged from $85 to $114 in two weeks. At its peak, trading volumes for futures on the precious metal reached $4.67 billion on weekdays and $460 million on weekends, experts noted.
They stated that Hyperliquid absorbs demand for traditional assets when conventional instruments are unavailable. If this trend continues, the native token HYPE will be in a favorable position and continue to strengthen against other cryptocurrencies, according to Pine Analytics.
Over the past day, the coin gained 1.8%, and over two weeks, it rose by 10.3% (CoinGecko).
Recall that earlier in March, analysts from the London Crypto Club assessed the impact of the war in Iran on Bitcoin's dynamics, outlining two potential scenarios.