As Bitcoin reached new highs, the key indicator aSOPR signaled a weakening bullish sentiment. This was noted by CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.
Late Bull, Early Bear, or Just a Reset? aSOPR Holds the Clue
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 30, 2026
“If current support levels fail and additional technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, we could be entering a capitulation phase.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/8DuRRMNOXK
According to his observations, each price peak of Bitcoin was accompanied by earlier profit-taking by investors, indicating a decline in confidence with each new wave of growth.
The metric tracked a downward trend in profit-taking: market participants increasingly exited positions as returns fell.
Currently, aSOPR is clearly following a downward channel. Each touch of the upper boundary coincided with local price peaks, while approaching the lower limit aligned with local lows.
“This makes aSOPR not just a sentiment indicator, but a tool for identifying market pressure points,” the expert commented.
Currently, digital gold is testing the lower boundary of this channel amid extreme fear in the market. Approximately one-third of the total Bitcoin supply is at a loss.
Historically, such conditions have created tactical buying opportunities before short-term rebounds, the analyst emphasized. However, the market stands at a crossroads.
A loss of current levels and additional bearish indicators could lead to a capitulation phase. The downward peaks of aSOPR throughout the bullish cycle indicate a weakening of “strong hands,” and breaking current levels could trigger accelerated selling.
Return of Risk Appetite
On January 30, Bitcoin briefly dropped to a local low near $81,100, while Ethereum fell to $2,700. The total market capitalization of crypto assets decreased by 5.6% to $2.9 trillion.
At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $82,800.
Amid the market decline, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $817 million. The latest daily outflow was the largest since mid-November.
Outflows and inflows of funds in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue.
The decline in cryptocurrencies was driven by a downturn in the tech sector and precious metals. Microsoft shares plummeted by 12%, triggering a domino effect across global markets.
CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost noted that Bitcoin's “relatively modest correction” triggered liquidations of long positions worth $300 million within hours. The largest volume came from Hyperliquid, where longs worth $87.1 million were closed.
Global Sell Off: -8% Gold, -12% Silver, -5% BTC, while Binance Open Interest back up to Pre-October 10 Levels
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 30, 2026
“This represents an increase of roughly 31% since then, gradually reflecting the return of risk appetite among investors.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/xKvYmbesRu
“In comparison, on Binance […] this figure was about three times lower — around $30 million. This indicates that many investors are still using high leverage to gain market exposure, generating spikes in volatility often exacerbated by cascades of liquidations,” the expert emphasized.
However, risk appetite is returning, Darkfost stated. Currently, open interest on Binance stands at 123,500 BTC, which is 31% higher than the October 10 figure of 93,600 BTC.
Other Factors
Another factor exacerbating the correction was liquidity conditions, noted global economist at Kraken, Thomas Perfumo.
“Global liquidity, which most affects cryptocurrency dynamics, remains tight. Interest rates are just one part of the overall picture. At the same time, gold historically benefits from a weak U.S. dollar and continues to attract capital from risk-sensitive investors,” he said.
Additional pressure came from short positions. According to Kraken's Vice President Matt Howell-Barby, concerns about tech giants' large AI expenditures added nervousness to risk asset markets. This contrasts with the clear risk-on sentiment these segments started the week with.
“Credit spreads were already extremely tight, and markets were clearly risk-on before this move. Bitcoin felt the impact: a wave of long liquidations pushed prices down. Failure to hold above $83,500 will shift focus to the $80,000 area,” the expert emphasized.
In addition to macroeconomic conditions, internal blockchain data indicates stress in the key sector — Bitcoin mining.
According to CryptoQuant's weekly report, the cryptocurrency mining segment faced significant disruptions due to a powerful winter storm in the U.S.
Extreme weather forced several major operators to temporarily halt operations, resulting in the sharpest decline in hashrate since October 2021.
The blockchain's computational power dropped by about 12% compared to mid-November levels. Concurrently, amid falling Bitcoin prices and slowing block generation, miners' daily revenue fell to an annual low of around $28 million. This sharply worsened the profitability of the entire industry.
According to the latest data, a recovery is underway: hashrate and average block time are beginning to return to previous levels as the weather normalizes.
However, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards pointed to a worsening situation: production costs have fallen to $69,000, while electricity costs are at $55,000.
This is not good. As the Bitcoin miner exodus continues, Production Cost has collapsed to $69K. Electrical Cost is $55K. This has expanded the potential range for near term downside. pic.twitter.com/Z0wcTT6CV8
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) January 30, 2026
“This has expanded the potential range for further price declines in the near term,” he emphasized.
Recall that BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin could break out of its range if the Fed supports the Japanese bond market.