The NUPL indicator has approached levels that historically precede market bottoms. If this historical pattern holds, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could drop below $58,000, warned CryptoQuant analyst known as TheChessOnChain.

Four Bitcoin Bottoms, One Signal: the 100-Day NUPL Below Zero

“Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend.” – By @thechessONCHAIN pic.twitter.com/STHpJ86WgV— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 7, 2026

According to him, the smoothed 100-day EMA of the NUPL metric has historically coincided with the end of bearish phases.

“This was the case at the end of 2011 (around $2), in January 2015 ($182), in December 2018 ($3,206), and in November 2022 during the FTX collapse ($15,792),” wrote TheChessOnChain.

The current reading is around 0.215 and continues to decline with Bitcoin priced at approximately $63,000. The expert believes this leaves room for further declines in the asset.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

However, the expert emphasized that this is a historical pattern, not a guaranteed scenario. He suggested that the indicator might either cross zero again or this cycle could be the first where a bottom forms without such a signal.

“The zero line is a level to watch in the coming weeks,” concluded TheChessOnChain.

Market Update

After nearly a week of gains, Bitcoin has turned to decline for the first time since early July. The price has retreated to $63,000 after reaching a two-week high of around $64,500.

Despite the price recovery, derivatives market data does not yet confirm the sustainability of the upward movement. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has dropped from 776,000 BTC on July 3 to the current 740,000 BTC, indicating reduced trader activity.

Source: CoinGlass.

Weak demand in the spot market also raises doubts about the sustainability of the rise. This is indicated by:

  • Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw over $4 billion withdrawn in June, according to SoSoValue;
  • The dynamics of the Coinbase Premium index, reflecting the activity of American investors. According to CoinGlass, the index remains in negative territory.

Recall that at the beginning of July, an analyst known as Darkfost noted that the Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin approached levels seen in the final phases of bear markets.