Short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) have maintained profitable positions for nearly a month, a trend that, according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, has historically indicated the conclusion of bear markets.
🗞️ An STH signal that's historically marked the end of bear markets
This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top.
The last time was in January, but that episode didn't last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH… pic.twitter.com/PPCynQfTFc
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 14, 2026
Analysts' Observations
Darkfost calculated that the market value of profitable STH coins reached $168 billion, while assets in the red totaled just above $100 billion.
This current trend differs significantly from previous recovery attempts: in January, STH remained in profit for no more than a week, and in May, losing positions were still dominant. Now, the opposite situation has persisted for almost a month.
During a bear market, a return to purchase prices often leads recent buyers to sell their coins, causing a swift shift from profit to losses. Darkfost noted that the sustained profit retention indicates a reduction in such selling pressure.
He further remarked that a similar trend observed in 2022-2023 marked the end of bear phases. For the signal to be validated, Bitcoin needs to secure a position above $80,000.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Another argument came from CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, who noted an increase in the SOPR of long-term holders (LTH) above 1, a threshold indicating that this group is generally realizing profits.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 15, 2026
The analyst believes this shift signifies a transition from a bear market to a neutral phase.
Additionally, LTH reserves are currently at record levels. Data from CryptoQuant shows that this group has been accumulating Bitcoin for most of 2026.
However, CW8900 has not observed any significant profit-taking yet. In the current cycle, the LTH SOPR has not exceeded 6, a level previously seen during earlier market peaks.
Nonetheless, he cautioned that this historical pattern does not guarantee a similar outcome.
Investor Sentiment Ahead of the Fed Decision
The short-term positioning among market participants remains mixed. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted a disparity between Bitcoin inflows from retail versus institutional investors on Binance.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 15, 2026
By September 12, the 30-day inflow from retail investors reached $10.11 billion, almost matching the figure from June 6. During this period, the price of Bitcoin surged approximately 27%, rising from $60,700 to $77,000.
In contrast, large holders have decreased their Bitcoin transfers to the exchange, with the amount dropping from $6.8 billion on June 6 to $4.9 billion by September 14. Retail inflows have outpaced this category by 106%.
Taha linked the activity of smaller investors to profit-taking amid rising prices, while the decline in transfers from large holders suggests they are generating less potential supply on the exchange.
However, the incoming Bitcoin to the trading platform does not necessarily indicate impending sales, as the coins may remain in accounts or be used for other transactions.
The Federal Reserve's decision will be an additional factor for the market, the expert stated. Currently, traders assess a 92.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike.
Assessment of the Federal Reserve's rate meeting outcomes on September 16. Source: CME FedWatch.Notably, in September, analysts from Glassnode identified the range of $83,000-$86,000 as the next significant resistance zone, where long-term holders have concentrated their purchases and where the breakeven level for American spot ETFs lies.