Bitcoin shows signs of a potential end to its bear market as short-term holders report sustained profits for nearly a month.
Recent data indicates that short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) have maintained profitable positions for nearly a month, a trend that suggests a potential end to the bear market, according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost.
This is the first time STH have remained in profit territory for such an extended period since the market peak in January. The previous instances did not last long, with the situation in May showing predominant losses among this group.
Darkfost highlighted that the market value of Bitcoin held by profitable STH has surged to $168 billion, while the value of coins held at a loss stands at just above $100 billion. This stark contrast from earlier recovery attempts, where profits were fleeting, indicates a significant change in market dynamics.
He noted that sustained profits among STH could reduce the selling pressure typically seen during bear markets, where recent buyers often sell when prices return to their purchase levels. For this trend to solidify, Bitcoin needs to maintain a price above $80,000, with current trading around $77,000.
Another insight from CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 pointed out that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH) has climbed above 1, suggesting this group is also realizing profits. LTH reserves have reached all-time highs as they have been accumulating Bitcoin throughout 2026. However, significant profit-taking has yet to be observed, with the LTH SOPR not exceeding 6, a level typically associated with market peaks.
Investor sentiment appears mixed as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decisions on September 15-16. Analyst Amr Taha reported a notable difference in inflow patterns, with retail investors contributing $10.11 billion in Bitcoin inflows by September 12, nearly matching levels from early June when Bitcoin prices rose by 27% to $77,000. Conversely, large holders have reduced their transfers to exchanges from $6.8 billion in June to $4.9 billion in September, indicating a shrinking supply on the market.
Despite the rise in retail inflows, Taha cautioned that incoming Bitcoin to exchanges does not necessarily predict imminent sales, as these coins may remain in accounts for other purposes. The looming Fed meeting adds another layer of uncertainty, with traders estimating a 92.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
Finally, analysts from Glassnode have identified the $83,000-$86,000 range as the next critical resistance zone for Bitcoin, where long-term holders have concentrated their purchases, corresponding to the breakeven level for various American spot ETFs.
