The price of Bitcoin could drop to $53,600, which aligns with the realized price of the asset—the average purchase cost of all coins in circulation, analysts from CryptoQuant noted.
Source: CryptoQuant.Julio Moreno, head of research at the company, stated that demand for Bitcoin remains "extremely unfavorable." Over the past week, the metric decreased by 652,000 BTC—the sharpest drop since early 2022.
Institutional interest has also waned. The capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last 30 days turned negative, totaling -74,000 BTC. Instead of buying the dip, funds are increasing supply in the market.
On June 10, the net outflow from American spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $213.85 million. The leading seller was BlackRock's IBIT fund, which lost $148.47 million. Grayscale (GBTC) also recorded an outflow of $87.9 million.
Source: SoSoValue.According to CryptoQuant, there are currently no signs of capitulation—mass panic selling. The total realized loss for holders over the past 30 days amounted to 187,000 BTC. For comparison, during the FTX exchange collapse, this figure reached 1.2 million BTC.
Moreno emphasized that many short-term investors are still holding profitable positions and have not reached the psychological threshold for forced selling.
Analysts believe the current price could be a "candidate for the bottom," but for sustainable growth, the market needs a regime change. A full recovery will only begin after demand stabilizes and inflows into ETFs return. Until then, the risks of further declines remain.
At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at $62,651 (+1.8% over the past day).
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Recall that on June 9, analysts from K33 identified $60,000 as a Bitcoin accumulation zone.