Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its bearish trend as on-chain metrics indicate initial signs of a rebound in spot demand, according to findings from CryptoQuant.

https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2089728636039331975

Spot Demand Approaching a Turnaround

Analysts report that the 30-day visible spot demand metric has improved from -206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly -5,000 BTC currently. This metric is close to turning positive for the first time since February 26, 2026.

Historically, such a turnaround has been a strong indicator of subsequent growth, with previous instances showing a median increase of 18.1% over the next 60 days and a 78% likelihood of continued upward movement. When the price is significantly undervalued compared to fundamental assessments, this probability rises to 87%.

“A change in demand is a tailwind, not a guarantee, and it must first complete,” warned CryptoQuant specialists.

Is Bitcoin Close to Exiting the Bear Market?

Bitfinex Alpha analysts believe that two out of the three necessary conditions for a full recovery in Bitcoin's prices have already been met:

  • Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate have improved;
  • Financial conditions remain relatively loose.

https://twitter.com/BitfinexReplies/status/2089378500901802192

U.S. inflation has decreased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, and the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Fed in the coming weeks has diminished. Additionally, falling yields on short-term Treasury bonds and a rising stock market have increased investor appetite for riskier assets.

However, the third condition—a capital influx from traditional markets into cryptocurrencies—has yet to materialize.

Bitfinex suggests that this capital shift could serve as a catalyst for the next growth phase. If funds currently invested in stocks, the tech sector, and AI infrastructure begin to flow into digital assets, Bitcoin could not only surpass $70,000 but also initiate more robust upward movement.

Currently, the opposite trend is observed: over the past week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have lost approximately $385 million, and capital inflow into corporate Bitcoin treasuries has also slowed. The supply of stablecoins remains below May's peak, resulting in a thin market where even minor changes in flows can lead to disproportionately large price movements for Bitcoin, both up and down.

In a positive scenario, Bitfinex anticipates a return to prices above $70,000. However, if negative flows persist, the next critical support level could be around $57,000.

ETFs and Miners Hamper Breakout

Wintermute has taken a more cautious view of the current situation. The firm's experts noted that U.S. spot BTC ETFs have experienced a loss of about $385 million, marking the largest weekly outflow since early July.

https://twitter.com/wintermute_t/status/2089571871352402392?s=20

Moreover, Bitcoin has shown minimal reaction to the reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike. This is a concerning sign for the market: typically, hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy stimulate demand for risk assets; however, Bitcoin remains under pressure.

Analysts suggest that the combination of ETF outflows and sales by miners has deprived the market of a key source of new demand. For instance, Wintermute cited Riot Platforms, which sold 4,300 BTC in the second quarter following the sale of 3,778 BTC in the first quarter. The company's reserves have dwindled to 11,380 BTC, with its mining cost nearing $91,000 per coin—significantly above current prices.

This situation indicates that some miners are compelled to sell their accumulated coins to maintain liquidity and finance operations. As long as prices remain considerably below their costs, supply pressure may persist, experts noted.

It’s worth mentioning that on August 17, Bitcoin outperformed the stock market—over the past three months, the asset has surpassed the S&P 500 on only one out of three trading days.