The second-largest cryptocurrency is showing on-chain signals typical of market bottoms. However, analysts at CryptoQuant caution that a definitive bottom has yet to be confirmed.

Ethereum is cheap, but the data says the bottom isn’t in yet.

ETH trades 17% below its realized price, but only two of five signals have reached historical bottoming levels.

Selling pressure is easing. Capitulation is still missing. pic.twitter.com/lYIfHpslsl

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 23, 2026

According to their observations, Ethereum is trading 17% below its realized price—the average cost of all circulating coins, currently around $2300. Since mid-May, the asset's price has remained in the $1500-2000 range. Historically, such periods have indicated undervaluation of the coin and proximity to a cycle bottom, experts noted.

No Capitulation Yet

Analysts examined five metrics for Ethereum. Only two of them have reached levels that accompanied previous market reversals: the ratio of price to realized price, and the comparative volumes of spot trading between the leading altcoin and Bitcoin.

Source: CryptoQuant.

The latter metric has dropped from about 1.75 to 0.5. Analysts believe this indicates a weakening speculative interest in Ethereum, aligning with values observed near past lows.

Other metrics are improving but do not yet signal a definitive capitulation among market participants.

The MVRV ratio of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin has decreased from 0.95 in August 2025 to the current 0.65. The coin has become significantly cheaper than the first cryptocurrency, but during previous lows, this metric fell to around 0.45.

A similar trend is seen with exchange inflows. The ratio for ETH and Bitcoin has decreased from over 1.5 to 0.8, indicating reduced selling pressure. However, this figure remains above the 0.4 mark typical of past bottom zones.

The share of Ethereum in the assets of spot cryptocurrency ETFs has also begun to recover after nearly a year of decline. This metric fell from 0.2 in August 2025 to 0.115 in June, before rising to 0.13.

CryptoQuant described this trend as the first sign of returning institutional demand. However, the current increase is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

Outflows Increase, Staking Share Grows

Additional signals are coming from the supply side. At the end of June, the volume of Ethereum withdrawals from Binance reached a three-year high.

This trend may indicate a shift of coins into self-custody or staking instead of preparing for sale. However, outflows alone do not prove accumulation of the asset, analysts emphasized.

A record share of Ethereum's supply—around 34%—is currently staked. This increase reduces the number of coins available for trading and potentially alleviates selling pressure.

Bitcoin Drops Below $65,000

Amid worsening conditions in traditional markets, Bitcoin fell below $65,000 on the night of July 24—a three-day low. Over the past week, the asset's price had risen above $67,000.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Pressure on risk assets intensified following renewed tensions surrounding Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would hold Tehran responsible for the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in Saudi Arabia.

By the close of trading in New York, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.2%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2%. Brent crude oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, raising concerns about renewed inflation, analysts at The Kobeissi Letter noted.

$100 oil is back.

Brent crude oil prices are now officially trading above $100/barrel up +42% in 20 days.

Inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again. pic.twitter.com/2b6UqAyF7N

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2026

Simultaneously, yields on U.S. government bonds increased. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed at the July meeting approached 40%, according to CME FedWatch. A week earlier, the market estimated this probability at about 12%.

Trader opinions on Bitcoin's future trajectory diverged. Michaël van de Poppe identified the $64,000 area as the nearest support. He believes that a consolidation above the $68,000 resistance would pave the way to $73,000.

Theoretically, the target area for #Bitcoin is reached.

However, as long as this stays above the 21-Day MA, I'm sure there will be a higher valuation for Bitcoin in the near-term.

It's facing the final hurdle for a big breakout, which is the $68,000 resistance zone.

It's been… pic.twitter.com/WiDuvs3vp1

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 23, 2026

Other market participants suggested that the July recovery might be over, with a continuation of the decline following the loss of the $65,000 level.

As a reminder, on July 22, Bitfinex analysts identified the $68,000 mark as the next key resistance zone.