The April rally of Bitcoin from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures, while spot demand remained negative, according to analysts at CryptoQuant.
Perp demand is rising. Spot demand is still contracting.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 30, 2026
That exact setup appeared in 2022 and preceded the next leg down.
It doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but structurally, this is a bearish demand signal. pic.twitter.com/jE1Ld6koaZ
They noted that the divergence between price increases and declining spot interest indicates a speculative nature of the movement. The Apparent Demand metric remained below zero throughout the month, showing a lack of organic support from buyers.
Experts compared the current demand structure to the beginning of the bearish phase in 2022, when rising derivative volumes were also accompanied by a contraction in spot activity, leading to a multi-month correction for Bitcoin.
The price of digital gold has already retreated from its local peak of around $79,000 to approximately $77,000. For April, the asset rose nearly 12%, marking the best performance since the start of the year, according to CoinGlass.
Experts described this outcome as predictable, given that the rally was primarily based on futures.
Another signal was the Bull Score from CryptoQuant, which dropped from 50 to 40, falling back into the "bearish zone" below neutral.
Key Level for Short-Term Holders
CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente highlighted the STH MVRV indicator, which reflects the position of short-term Bitcoin holders.
Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026
“A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi
He noted that the current cycle is forming a descending resistance line connecting three peaks:
- March 2024 — Bitcoin reached $72,000;
- November 2024 — the price rose to $106,000;
- July 2025 — the asset set a new high of around $120,000.
In all these instances, the price set historical highs, but the STH MVRV showed lower peaks. This indicates weakening momentum among short-term holders despite rising prices.
The market is approaching a crucial test of this structure, the expert noted. If Bitcoin can hold above the realized price for short-term holders, this group will move from losses to profits.
According to Moreno de Vicente, a sustained recovery along with the stabilization of STH MVRV above 1.0 could signal a change in market regime, where recent buyers will stop pressuring the price with each bounce.
Ethereum and the Risk of a Short Squeeze
A similar tension in the derivatives market is observed with Ethereum, but the structure appears different. The altcoin's price has dropped 65% from its local peak. The TOTAL2 metric has fallen by over 51%, noted analyst Darkfost.
🗞️ Short Squeeze builds on Ethereum as Funding mirrors FTX-Era Extremes
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 1, 2026
The altcoin market was hit hard during this downturn, with Ethereum at the forefront. ETH recorded a correction of around 65% from its last peak. TOTAL2, which represents the total market cap of altcoins… pic.twitter.com/7NkZo5XkNf
Since its February low, the asset has recovered over 30%. However, many participants remain skeptical about the recovery and continue to open short positions, the specialist emphasized.
He stated that funding rates for Ethereum on Binance have been negative for a long time. This was only seen during the FTX collapse and the bottom of the last bear market in November 2022.
The current average monthly funding rate is -0.0018. Darkfost believes this reflects a strong consensus among traders betting on further declines.
“This is a risky bet, and some are already paying the price — as indicated by the rising volume of short position liquidations. As the upward momentum of ETH strengthens, shorts are increasingly being squeezed out. This dynamic could fuel Ethereum's recovery: cascading liquidations are on the rise. Markets rarely reward such unanimous sentiment,” he concluded.
At the time of writing, the leading altcoin is trading around $2,280. Its price has increased by 0.8% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
Recall that on April 30, experts at Glassnode noted a weakening of selling pressure from Bitcoin sellers.