CryptoQuant analysts label Bitcoin's April rally as speculative, driven by futures rather than genuine spot demand, signaling potential bearish trends.
CryptoQuant analysts have characterized Bitcoin's April price surge—from $66,000 to $79,000—as largely speculative, driven by perpetual futures rather than genuine spot demand, which has continued to decline.
Perpetual demand is increasing, while spot demand is contracting. This pattern mirrors the situation in 2022 that led to a significant price drop. While it doesn't guarantee a similar outcome, it signals bearish demand.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 30, 2026
The analysts pointed out that the disparity between rising prices and falling spot interest indicates a lack of sustainable support from buyers. The Apparent Demand metric has remained below zero throughout April, highlighting this absence of organic demand.
The recent price increase, which saw Bitcoin peak at about $79,000 before retreating to around $77,000, marked nearly a 12% rise for April, the best monthly performance of the year, according to CoinGlass. However, experts believe this rally was primarily fueled by futures trading.
Additionally, CryptoQuant's Bull Score has dropped from 50 to 40, indicating a return to the "bearish zone."
Short-Term Holder Insights
Analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente emphasized the importance of the STH MVRV indicator, which tracks short-term holders of Bitcoin. He suggested that if Bitcoin can reclaim its Realized Price and the MVRV stabilizes above 1.0, it could indicate a shift in market structure.
Bitcoin is on the verge of flipping its market structure. A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, along with MVRV trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026
Moreno de Vicente noted a descending resistance line formed by three previous peaks: $72,000 in March 2024, $106,000 in November 2024, and around $120,000 in July 2025. Despite rising prices, the STH MVRV has shown lower peaks, suggesting weakening momentum among short-term holders. A crucial test lies ahead for Bitcoin; maintaining above the realized price could shift short-term holders from losses to profits.
Ethereum's Short Squeeze Risk
In a parallel development, Ethereum is experiencing similar pressures in the derivatives market, although the dynamics differ. The price of Ethereum has plummeted 65% from its last peak, with the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) dropping over 51%, according to analyst Darkfost.
Ethereum is facing a potential short squeeze as funding rates mirror extreme conditions seen during the FTX collapse. Many traders remain skeptical of the recovery, continuing to open short positions.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 1, 2026
Since February, Ethereum has rebounded over 30%, but negative funding rates on exchanges like Binance have persisted, reflecting a strong consensus among traders betting on further declines. Darkfost cautioned that this could lead to cascading liquidations as upward momentum builds, potentially boosting Ethereum's recovery. Currently, Ethereum is trading near $2,280, showing a slight increase of 0.8% in the last 24 hours, as per CoinGecko.
Additionally, on April 30, Glassnode analysts highlighted a reduction in selling pressure from Bitcoin holders, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment.
