Bitcoin has not yet reached a local minimum; for that to happen, the price must overcome several resistance zones with a high concentration of losing positions. This assessment comes from a CryptoQuant contributor known as IT Tech.
"The bottom is in." Everyone's saying it
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 7, 2026
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88.88K and hold — not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/woRJLa6UTs
The analyst identified three groups of long-term holders who purchased cryptocurrency at local highs:
- Investors (3-6 months): average purchase price — $88,888;
- 12-18 months: $93,450;
- 6-12 months: $111,850.
These levels act as barriers to growth. As prices approach these entry points, market participants tend to close trades at breakeven, creating selling pressure.
IT Tech considers the $88,880 level crucial. Holding above this mark would return recent buyers to profitability and significantly reduce market pressure.
As long as Bitcoin trades below this threshold, any rise into the $85,000-$88,000 range is viewed by the analyst as a temporary bounce. He believes discussions about a bottom remain theoretical at this point, as data does not support them.
Bitcoin Rises to $85,200
Analysts at Glassnode noted that the price of the leading cryptocurrency has surpassed the True Market Mean ($78,200) and the average purchase price of short-term holders ($79,100).
If the price holds at these levels, the period of "deep undervaluation" for the asset will be one of the shortest in history. Glassnode's next target for growth is $85,200.
Experts highlighted improvements in the market:
- Profitability: the net profit and loss indicator has turned positive;
- ETF: recording net capital inflow for the fifth consecutive trading session, while Ethereum funds have remained positive for four days;
- Futures: Funding rates remain negative.
Long-term investors have begun to show activity, realizing profits of about $180 million per day. This is significantly lower than peak cycle values ($1 billion), so selling pressure is currently assessed as moderate.
A large cluster of "negative gamma" has formed in the options market around $82,000. If this level is reached, volatility may spike sharply as dealers will need to hedge their positions, amplifying any price movement.
Market Overheating
Sentiment in the Bitcoin community has peaked in four months as Bitcoin rose above $80,000. According to Santiment, there is 1.37 positive mentions of the asset on social media for every negative mention.
🙌 Bitcoin’s social sentiment has surged alongside its latest price rebound, with Santiment data showing a 1.37 bullish vs. 1.00 bearish commentary ratio across social media. This marks the highest level of positive crowd sentiment in roughly 4 months, signaling that traders are… pic.twitter.com/hR24lJyg5Y
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 6, 2026
Traders have stopped fearing macroeconomic factors and geopolitical issues. Fear has shifted to anticipation of further growth.
Analysts reminded that historically, prices often move against the majority's expectations. When FOMO dominates the market, the risk of forming a local peak and subsequent correction increases.
For comparison, in mid-April, following the Kelp hack, pessimism prevailed on social media. This created conditions for a rebound as the market cleared out "weak hands."
Experts advise monitoring signs of excessive leverage and overconfidence among players — the consensus of the crowd often precedes a spike in volatility.
On May 5, K33 Research specialists noted that prolonged pessimism in the market creates conditions for further growth.