The rally of the leading cryptocurrency to $75,000 is accompanied by an increasing risk of profit-taking. Several on-chain indicators suggest growing selling pressure, noted Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin hit $76K resistance, and exchange inflows surged.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 15, 2026
~11K BTC/hour moved to exchanges, the highest since Dec 2025 and above the March spike that preceded a pullback.
Large holders are positioning to distribute into strength. Watch for selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/zcTHglIVnL
On April 14, Bitcoin's price rose above $75,400 for the first time since early February, driven by the asset's undervaluation, a temporary easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and a weakening U.S. dollar.
At the time of writing, the price of digital gold had retreated to $74,700 but remained close to the key level of $76,800 — the realized price for traders.
In a bear market, this level acts as a strong resistance zone: as it approaches the breakeven point, holders begin to sell coins, limiting further growth, the expert explained.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
“In January 2026, this level halted the rally in a bear market, and prices fell. The same could happen if sellers become active. If resistance holds, support will be the lower band at $67,600,” Moreno emphasized.
Worrisome Signal
As Bitcoin's price increased, so did inflows to exchanges, reaching 11,000 BTC per hour — the highest level since late December 2025. The analyst called this trend a “worrisome signal”: investors often transfer coins to trading platforms for subsequent sale.
Moreno reminded that in March of this year, hourly inflows of 9,000 BTC, with large deposits concentrated at 63%, preceded a short-term drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
According to CryptoQuant, the increase in exchange inflows is primarily driven by large holders. The expert noted that the average transfer size surged to 2.25 BTC — the highest since July 2024, aided by significant individual transfers on Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC.
“This pattern was also observed in January when the average deposit reached nearly 2 BTC before Bitcoin's crash from $100,000 to $60,000,” he added.
The share of large deposits also sharply increased — from 10% to 40% of total inflows to exchanges within a few days. Historically, such figures have coincided with heightened short-term selling pressure, Moreno highlighted.
Not Yet the Peak
The volume of profit-taking among market participants is still far from peak levels. Daily realized gains are around $500 million — below the $1 billion threshold that typically signals a surge in sales during bear phases.
“If Bitcoin holds above $76,000 or breaks the realized price for traders at $76,800, daily realized profits could sharply rise to $1 billion and beyond. This would add pressure on sellers and increase the likelihood of halting the rally or reversing,” the expert concluded.
Meanwhile, Glassnode noted that position closures are gaining momentum: the 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 1.16 — investors are selling on the rise.
Approaching the Ceiling$BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction.
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 15, 2026
Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/hLPc8PkKss pic.twitter.com/wW110xUd89
To sustainably break above $78,100 (analysts consider this level key resistance), the market will need to absorb this selling pressure.
Organic Correction Potential
Bitfinex analysts have pointed out the actions of large players: over the past 30 days, whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC, the largest buying spree since 2013. Meanwhile, reserves of the leading cryptocurrency on exchanges have fallen to a multi-year low.
Whales accumulated 270,000 $BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013.
— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) April 15, 2026
Exchange reserves are at their lowest since December 2017.
The supply to meet new demand is shrinking 🤔 pic.twitter.com/F6Td5a5XcL
Experts say the supply to meet new demand is decreasing. On one hand, this makes the market vulnerable to sharp movements — even a small volume of sales can trigger significant volatility. On the other hand, the potential for a prolonged decline is limited: sellers may not have enough coins to exert sustained pressure on prices.
What’s Next
Max Gnatishin, COO of Toobit in the CIS, commented to ForkLog that Bitcoin's breakout above $74,000 confirmed buyer strength and the price's exit from strong resistance.
“If the asset holds above this mark, the market may start pricing in a move to the next target above,” he believes.
However, further growth may be hindered by weak inflows into spot ETFs, profit-taking by large holders, and a renewed rise in dollar yields or tightening rate expectations.
Recall that K33 specialists saw signs of a Bitcoin reversal after 68 days of consolidation.