CryptoQuant analysts are skeptical about whether the correction of the leading cryptocurrency has ended. Despite significant loss realizations, on-chain metrics do not yet confirm the formation of a structural bottom.
On February 5, Bitcoin holders recorded losses of $5.4 billion, the highest since March 2023. However, in terms of volume, the losses amounted to only 0.3 million BTC. For comparison, during the capitulation at the end of 2022, this figure reached 1.1 million BTC.
Experts highlighted factors indicating the risk of further declines:
- Profitability of coins. The current level is 55%. Historical cycle lows formed at values of 45-50%.
- Behavior of long-term holders (LTH). This group tends to sell assets at a loss. Market bottoms typically coincide with LTH realizing losses of 30-40%.
- Cycle phase. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is in the bearish zone but has not yet fallen into the "extremely bearish" zone, which is characteristic of the beginning of a reversal.
Bitcoin is trading 18% above its realized price ($55,000). In previous cycles, prices dropped 24-30% below this level, followed by a 4-6 month accumulation phase.
Bearish Risks
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noted another concerning signal: the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) has fallen to 0.2. Historically, such values corresponded to early stages of bearish cycles, as seen in 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin BCMI — How Close Are We to a Buy Zone?
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 12, 2026
“The data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction… From a cycle perspective, true bottom conditions may still be ahead.” – By @Woo_Minkyu pic.twitter.com/8hNnXOkZF3
The expert pointed out that the current market behavior differs from a typical mid-cycle correction. In October, the metric held a neutral level of 0.5, but this structure has broken down. There was no rebound from the 0.3 mark; the decline continued without recovery phases. The situation resembles a shift in investor sentiment towards risk aversion.
Historically, cycle bottoms formed at lower BCMI values:
- 0.10-0.15 in 2019;
- around 0.15 in 2022-2023.
Current metrics are still above capitulation zones, indicating that conditions for forming a final bottom have not yet materialized, even though the market has entered a bearish phase.
The BCMI indicator aggregates data on asset valuation (MVRV), profitability (NUPL), participant behavior (SOPR), and sentiment. A drop to 0.2 reflects a reduction in unrealized profits and loss realizations. The "extreme panic" stage (0.1 zone) has not yet been reached.
According to Woominkyu, the data supports a trend change scenario. Without a return of the index to levels of 0.4-0.5, the likelihood of further weakening of Bitcoin remains high.
Bitcoin Approaches Undervalued Zone
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan reached similar conclusions. He noted that the first cryptocurrency has been in a downward trend for about four months and is nearing the "undervalued zone."
Bitcoin Approaching the Undervalued Zone
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 13, 2026
“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.” – By @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/msSUdNDwk3
The expert justified his forecast with data from the MVRV indicator. Currently, the metric value is around 1.1. Historically, a drop below one signals asset undervaluation.
Crypto Dan pointed out a key difference in the current cycle: during the last rally, Bitcoin did not reach the zone of extreme overvaluation. As a result, the current correction may structurally differ from previous bottom formation episodes.
The analyst noted that accumulating positions during downturns increases the likelihood of success for long-term assets.
Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs
On February 12, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $410.37 million.
Source: SoSoValue.Over two days, investors withdrew $686.67 million from these products. Notably, none of the 12 funds experienced inflows.
The largest outflow came from BlackRock's IBIT ($157.56 million). Fidelity's FBTC followed in second place ($104.13 million). Grayscale and Bitwise funds lost a total of $65 million, while WisdomTree and Hashdex products showed no movement.
Despite the recent decline, the total net inflow into the sector over two years reached $54.31 billion. ETFs manage 6.34% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.
Options
On February 13, Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired. The total nominal value of the contracts approached $2.9 billion, according to Greeks.live.
February 13 Options Expiration Data
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) February 13, 2026
38,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.71, maximum pain point at $74,000, and notional value of $2.5 billion.
215,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, maximum pain point at $2,100, and notional value of $410… pic.twitter.com/07TKfJxmMi
Investors closed 38,000 Bitcoin options positions worth $2.5 billion. The put-call ratio was 0.71, with the "maximum pain" point at $74,000.
For Ethereum, 215,000 contracts worth $410 million expired. The put-call ratio reached 0.82, with the "maximum pain" point recorded at $2,100.
The total volume of expired contracts accounted for 9% of the total open interest.
Sentiment and Volatility
Experts noted a decrease in implied volatility: for Bitcoin, the measure fell to 50%, while for Ethereum, it dropped to 70%. The downward trend has slowed, but market participants' confidence remains low. The "maximum pain" point continues to decline rapidly.
Put options dominate trading activity. However, following yesterday's dip, signs of local buying have emerged: call options are increasingly appearing in large trades.
Analysts believe that the most aggressive phase of the decline has passed. Nevertheless, the lack of fresh liquidity inflows prevents any claims of a global reversal or the start of a bullish cycle.
Recall that Standard Chartered predicted a drop in Bitcoin to $50,000 followed by a rebound.