Investors are beginning to realize losses on the first cryptocurrency.
After Bitcoin fell below $90,000, profitability metrics have turned negative, indicating that the asset has entered an "early bear market," according to analysts at CryptoQuant.
Annual net realized profits are trending down.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 22, 2026
They’ve fallen to 2.5M BTC, the lowest level since March 2024 and similar to March 2022, when the last bear market started.
Net realized losses are following the same pattern, signaling weakening strength in Bitcoin’s price. pic.twitter.com/HOI4xHEsDz
Over the past month, the Net Realized Profit/Loss ratio has dropped to 69,000 BTC.
“Bitcoin holders have begun to realize net losses for the first time since October 2023. Peaks in realized profits have been declining since March 2024, indicating a loss of price momentum as the bull market comes to an end,” the experts noted.
Annual net realized profits have sharply decreased from 4.4 million BTC to the current 2.5 million BTC. Such levels were last seen in March 2022.
Analysts say the current conditions mirror the transition from the previous bull market to a bear market.
The metric peaked in January 2021 and formed lower highs over the next 12 months. Ahead of the downward trend, investors also began to realize losses en masse, as shown in the chart below.
Source: CryptoQuant.
Some participants expect 2026 to be a bear market year. Earlier, co-founder of Material Indicators, Kit Alan, noted the "death cross" on Bitcoin's chart, while trading veteran Peter Brandt predicted a drop in the asset to $58,000.
Analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out another negative signal for digital gold—the MACD crossing on a two-month timeframe.
#BITCOIN JUST FLASHED A BEAR MARKET SIGNAL.
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) January 9, 2026
The 2-month LMACD turned bearish. A major signal.
Historically, similar set-ups were followed by 50% — 64% drawdowns. pic.twitter.com/CCNzN8oXON
“Historically, similar configurations have been accompanied by declines of 50-64%,” the expert wrote.
Key Levels
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,200, down 1% in the last 24 hours.
As a result of the recent decline, the asset has lost key support levels, including the 75th percentile of the cost basis, which is currently at $92,940.
Bitcoin has lost the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile and failed to reclaim it. Spot now trades below the cost basis of 75% of supply, signaling rising distribution pressure. Risk has shifted higher, with downside dominant unless this level is recovered.
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 22, 2026
📈https://t.co/TicbyydmZE pic.twitter.com/8vhemNBFqf
“[Bitcoin] is now trading below the acquisition price of 75% of the total supply, indicating increasing selling pressure,” Glassnode emphasized.
Experts believe the cryptocurrency will continue its downward trend unless it recovers to the cost basis level.
Trader Merlijn The Trader pointed out support between $89,000 and $90,000. If this level is lost, Bitcoin risks falling to $84,000.
BITCOIN IS SETTING UP A DOUBLE FAKEOUT.
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) January 23, 2026
First:
break above resistance (~$96k)… then rejected.
Now:
price is back at the rising trendline support.
Bullish fakeout case:$BTC reclaims the trendline and squeezes back up.
Bearish case:
We likely revisit the range lows.
Markets… pic.twitter.com/725fghbDrm
According to Glassnode, at this level, investors purchased about 941,651 BTC over the last six months.
The next important support is at $80,000, where more than 127,000 BTC were acquired.
It’s worth noting that Bitwise analysts believe that the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the end of the bear cycle.