CryptoQuant analysts indicate Bitcoin has entered an early bear market as profitability metrics turn negative, with prices falling below $90,000.
Bitcoin is showing signs of distress as it trades below $90,000, with analysts from CryptoQuant declaring the cryptocurrency has entered an "early bear market." Recent profitability metrics indicate that investors are beginning to realize losses.
Annual net realized profits have dropped significantly from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC, marking the lowest point since March 2024 and reflecting trends seen during the last bear market in March 2022. Analysts noted that realized profits have been declining since March 2024, suggesting a loss of momentum as the previous bull phase concludes.
“Bitcoin holders have begun to realize net losses for the first time since October 2023,” the experts observed.
In the past month, the Net Realized Profit/Loss ratio fell to 69,000 BTC, further confirming bearish trends. The current market conditions echo the transition from the previous bull market to a bear market, a pattern that peaked in January 2021.
Market participants are increasingly pessimistic about 2026, with some experts predicting significant price drops. Kit Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, pointed out a "death cross" on Bitcoin's chart, while trading veteran Peter Brandt forecasts a potential fall to $58,000. Additionally, Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto highlighted a bearish signal from the two-month MACD, warning of possible declines of 50% to 64% based on historical patterns.
Current Market Levels
As of now, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $89,200, down 1% from the previous day. It has breached critical support levels, including the 75th percentile of its cost basis, which stands at $92,940. Analysts from Glassnode emphasized that Bitcoin is trading below the acquisition price of 75% of its total supply, indicating escalating selling pressure.
“Risk has shifted higher, with downside trends dominating unless this level is recovered,” they noted.
Trader Merlijn The Trader identified support between $89,000 and $90,000, warning that a failure to hold this level could lead to a drop to $84,000. Analysts also noted that significant buying activity occurred around these levels, with approximately 941,651 BTC purchased in the last six months. The next critical support is pegged at $80,000, where over 127,000 BTC were acquired.
Despite the current bearish sentiment, some analysts believe the fourth quarter of 2025 may have marked the end of the bear cycle, though market conditions remain volatile.
