In July 2026, spot trading activity on the cryptocurrency market is expected to decline to its lowest level since November 2023, according to a report from K33 analysts.

The report indicates that the average daily spot trading volume over the past month has been $2.2 billion. Additionally, the analysts highlighted low activity in derivatives, with open interest (OI) on the CME hovering near multi-year lows, while OI for perpetual futures remains around 300,000 BTC.

"This scenario clearly reflects the typical slowdown seen in July, which historically represents the weakest trading period of the year for the crypto market in terms of BTC volumes," K33 Research stated.

The analysts linked the declining volumes to pressures on cryptocurrency exchanges' revenues. They pointed to BitMEX, which announced its closure and will cease all operations by September 23. Starting August 26, the platform will implement risk limits, allowing users only to reduce their positions. All remaining open positions will be forcibly closed by the time trading stops.

According to Coinglass, the 30-day trading volume for Bitcoin was $102.39 billion, a decrease of 33.83% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, the volume of futures trading dropped by 28.95% during the same period, totaling $1.42 trillion.

Source: Coinglass.

Alexander Peresichan, CEO of Technobit, attributed the reduction in activity not only to seasonality but also to market sentiment.

"Traders have become more cautious due to low volatility and the absence of a clear upward or downward trend," he noted.

As of the time of this report, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index stands at 29 points, having dipped to 20 points in early July.

Source: Alternative.me.

Igor Plotnikov, COO of Millpay, pointed out the influence of the macroeconomic backdrop.

"The escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran is keeping oil prices high and fueling inflation risks. This compels investors to consider the likelihood that high interest rates will persist for an extended period. In such an environment, cryptocurrencies, like other risk assets, receive less liquidity," he explained.

According to Plotnikov, the statistics regarding capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs reflect a cautious investor attitude. Data from Farside indicates that outflows have nearly balanced inflows into funds over the past two weeks.

"Institutional investors are behaving passively: ETF flows are weak, and large players are waiting for clearer signals," he remarked.

Both experts believe that macroeconomic events will be the primary catalysts for changes in the market in the near future. Plotnikov noted that investors are currently awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the key interest rate.

Peresichan emphasized that the Federal Reserve's decisions largely depend on the energy market situation, uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, and high oil prices, which will inevitably lead to rising inflation and a slower reduction in rates than initially expected in early 2026.

At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the rate range at 3.5%–3.75%. As of this report, 64.2% of traders do not anticipate any changes, while 35.8% expect an increase to 3.75%–4%.

Source: CME FedWatch.

It is worth noting that in July, Grayscale analysts linked the potential bottom for Bitcoin to the Federal Reserve's future policies, asserting that macroeconomic factors have become more significant than the traditional four-year halving cycle.