Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views and analyses presented are his own and do not necessarily align with those of Decrypt. Also, check out our new daily news show that summarizes the key stories in just 5 minutes, available on Apple Pod or Spotify.
Good morning!
Here are today’s highlights:
- Leading cryptocurrencies increased by 3-6% following a favorable CPI report; BTC is at $64.6k
- HYPE rose 7% to $68 as the SEC Crypto Task Force convened with the HPC team
- Mizuho has lowered its target for Circle to $50, citing competition from OpenUSD
- Pump.fun experienced its first significant unlock, introducing $86M in PUMP to the market (PUMP +15%)
- Robinhood Chain is seeing a notable shift from meme coins to protocols
📈 Crypto Surges on Soft CPI Data, but Warsh Remains Cautious
The awaited soft inflation data for June has finally arrived.
The June CPI decreased by 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020, reducing the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, and coming in below the anticipated 3.8%. Core CPI also eased to 2.6%, lower than expected, remaining unchanged for the month.
Almost immediately after the report was released, the crypto market reacted positively. Bitcoin surged from approximately $62,000 to reclaim $64,900, while ETH climbed 7% to $1,884, resulting in about $300 million in short positions being liquidated as bearish investors were caught off guard.
This report was particularly significant as it was the last major inflation figure before the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for July 28-29, and it undermines the arguments for further rate hikes that have been restraining the market throughout the summer. The likelihood of a rate cut in July dropped from 35% on Polymarket to just 6% following the CPI data and Warsh’s remarks. However, the probability of at least one rate hike by year-end remains around 80%, a decrease from 90%.
Shortly after the CPI release, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress, his first appearance since succeeding Powell. A key takeaway was his assertion that if the Fed implements the right policies, the inflationary pressures experienced over the last five years “will be a thing of the past.” He emphasized the significance of AI in the economy, suggesting that the current trend of “AI investment” will soon simply be referred to as “investment,” viewing AI as a fundamentally disinflationary force.
Warsh: The Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
“If we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” https://t.co/RvCRxzdPuS
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 14, 2026
However, when directly questioned about the morning’s CPI figures, he tempered the enthusiasm, indicating that while some might interpret it as “mission accomplished,” he stated unequivocally, “that is not my view.” He refrained from providing any forward guidance and reiterated the committee's “no tolerance” stance on high inflation. This could be interpreted by some as slightly hawkish, and it seems a rate hike could still be on the horizon in 2026.
We may gain further insights at the FOMC meeting in two weeks. Until then, enjoy the market uptick…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies are performing well following the CPI report; BTC +3% at $64.6k; ETH +5% at $1,880; SOL +3% at $77; HYPE +7% at $68
- PI (+15%), PUMP (+14%) and ZEC (+13%) were the top performers
- Oil -1% at $80; Gold -1% at $4,035
- Stock futures are showing slight gains; DOW unchanged, Nasdaq +0.4%
- The SEC Crypto Task Force met with Hyperliquid’s Policy Center to discuss crypto regulation and Hyperliquid's role
- Some Senate Democrats opposed the CLARITY Act, labeling it a “corrupt bill” at a press event, intensifying pushback against its failure to prevent Trump and his family from profiting from crypto
- The CFTC intervened to prevent Kalshi from canceling trades following a Michigan court order, siding with the prediction market platform in a jurisdictional dispute with the federal regulator
- The US and UK are working to align regulations for tokenized finance, creating a coordinated effort to establish shared standards as tokenization expands
- JPMorgan indicated that Hyperliquid's growth poses a threat to Circle’s USDC model, resulting in a “prisoner’s dilemma” that positions Circle against Coinbase for market share
- Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform and reduced its price target to $50 due to threats from Open USD, highlighting risks to USDC’s core reserve-yield dynamics
- Circle has signed a memorandum of understanding with JCB, Japan’s leading card network, to explore stablecoin transactions across approximately 40 million merchants
- Coinbase’s Head of Platform reported that 95-100% of its code is now generated by AI or AI-assisted
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $181M in net inflows on Tuesday; ETH ETFs attracted $58M in inflows
- Tom Lee’s Bitmine reported $45M in earnings from ETH staking in Q2 according to their latest disclosures
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme coin leaders mostly experienced gains of 2-3%; DOGE +2%, SHIB +3%, PEPE +2%, PENGU +7%, TRUMP +2%, BONK -3%
- Robinhood chain memes faced volatility, with previous frontrunners declining such as Cashcat -30%, Juggernaut -38%, and Hoodrat -47%, while new launches like PONS soared by 13x and the RWA protocol INDEX surged 400%
- No significant movements were noted on Solana
📈 Market Updates of the Day
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Updates
- Pump.fun completed its first significant token unlock after one year, with $86M in PUMP tokens being released to the market
- Binance aims to evolve into a crypto "super-app" as stablecoins influence its growth strategy, moving beyond trading to encompass payments and financial services.
🚚 NFT Market Updates
- NFT leaders remained largely stable; Punks were at 32.4 ETH, BAYC rose 1% to 8.94 ETH, Pudgy increased 1% to 4.37 ETH; Hypurr’s declined by 2% to 175 HYPE
- Cryptoadz (+22%) and Trolls (+26%) led the top gainers
- New Robinhood NFT collections surged, including RDEGEN Hood (+450%) and Post Mortem (+60%)