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Happy Wednesday,
This week in your institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short:
- Six key indicators have historically signaled the conclusion of previous crypto winters. Denny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management examines how many of these signs are currently visible.
- Important headlines for institutions highlighted by Helene Braun
- “Pump.fun Custom Pools: Meme-Stock Bet Meets Muted Volume” is featured in our Chart of the Week.
Thanks for joining us!
Signs of Spring
by Denny Galindo, CFA, executive director, Global Investment Office, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Digital assets have historically followed a four-year cycle, characterized by a three-year bull market followed by a bear market lasting 12 to 14 months, often referred to as crypto winter. While the reasons for this cycle's persistence remain unclear, various explanations exist. Our analysis focuses on the upcoming phase of this cycle.
Typically, the onset of “crypto spring” has been quiet, marked by price stabilization amid low public interest. Several indicators that have previously indicated the shift from crypto winter to spring are emerging today. While these observations are not definitive predictions and may turn out to be inaccurate, they warrant close observation in the coming months.
1) Cycle Length: Historically, spring starts 17 months prior to the supply halving or 12 to 14 months following the previous peak. Currently, September is 17 months ahead of the next halving and 11 months from the last peak.
2) Exchange and Institutional Stress: Major exchanges often face failures or closures just before the onset of crypto spring. For instance, BitMEX announced its closure planned for September back in July.
3) Drawdowns of 77% to 84%: Bitcoin's current drawdown of 53% (as per Bloomberg data from October 6, 2025, to June 30, 2026) is less severe than those seen in previous winters but may still be significant.
4) Bitcoin Difficulty: This metric indicates the challenge of mining Bitcoin; typically, difficulty decreases towards the end of a crypto winter before rising again as spring begins. Although difficulty has decreased, it has not yet begun to rise.
5) Thermocap Multiple: This measure compares Bitcoin's market cap to the total dollar value paid to miners, with historical winters concluding at single-digit multiples. Currently, this multiple stands at 13, according to Glassnode data from June 30, 2026, which is not a guarantee of future trends.
6) Price Action: A 50% increase from market lows has historically marked previous troughs, although this relationship does not ensure similar future outcomes.
As the next cycle commences, two crucial discussions are expected to continue:
Will Bitcoin reach a new peak before the next halving? In the previous cycles from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020, Bitcoin did not exceed its prior cycle peak until after the halving. However, in the 2024 cycle, it surpassed the 2021 high one month before the April 2024 halving, as reported by Bloomberg.
Has AI taken over as the primary narrative of speculative and disruptive technology? In 2020 and 2021, crypto was a prominent representation of a high-liquidity, disruptive-technology market, but since 2024, AI has become the leading growth story.
These debates are unlikely to resolve quickly, which is why we are monitoring the six signs outlined above rather than waiting for definitive answers.
Headlines of the Week
By Helene Braun
This past week saw several significant narratives in crypto converge as Bitcoin's BTC$75,587.48 chart displayed a golden cross, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the industry would likely benefit from regulatory clarity regardless of the Clarity Act's outcome, while India's richest state, Maharashtra, is considering tokenizing its power infrastructure and other assets to fund new projects.
- Bitcoin’s golden cross is here: This technical indicator suggests a possible long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin.
- Crypto wins regardless of Clarity Act vote, Coinbase's Armstrong says: Coinbase's CEO asserts that the industry will achieve regulatory clarity, irrespective of the Senate's decision on the bill set for September 15.
- India's richest state considers tokenizing its own assets to fund new infrastructure: Maharashtra is developing a plan to tokenize its assets, including the electricity transmission system.
Chart of the Week
Pump.fun Custom Pools: Meme-Stock Bet Meets Muted Volume
Pump.fun has introduced custom pools that allow creators to pair memecoins with non-SOL tokens, directly responding to the growing meme stock narrative. The initial impact on daily volume saw a spike beyond $500M on September 10, but it has since stabilized between $390M and $450M.
Looking for more? Stay updated with the latest crypto news from coindesk.com and market updates from coindesk.com/institutions.
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The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
By CoinDesk Research18 hours agoCommissioned byRippleAs stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
View Full ReportMore From CoinDesk Indices