Although a relief rally linked to a rebound in U.S. equities has uplifted BTC and ETH from their weekly lows, bearish derivatives positioning and negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicate that this recovery might be tenuous.
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 25, 2026, 10:53 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Bitcoin price (CoinDesk Data)SummaryShow- In a 24-hour span, nearly $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated after bitcoin fell below $60,000, causing significant price fluctuations, with negative funding rates indicating a bias toward short positions.
- Implied volatility decreased from its peak on Wednesday, aiding the overnight rebound, but the put-call skew remains highly pronounced.
- SOL has seen a 75% drop from its peak in September, touching $64 on Wednesday, with a significant drop below $60 posing a risk of its lowest price since December 2023.
The cryptocurrency market exhibited some resilience on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC$61,240.95 rising 1.1% since midnight UTC after dipping below $60,000 on Wednesday, marking its lowest point since October 2024.
The leading cryptocurrency is at a pivotal level concerning the overall market structure. A further decline could see prices approach approximately $52,000, although it appears to have withstood recent pressures for the moment.
Ether (ETH) experienced a 1.5% increase on Thursday, trading at $1,644 after a brief drop to $1,550 at around 17:00 UTC on Wednesday.
The gains observed on Thursday are likely linked to a recovery in U.S. equities, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
Derivatives positioning
- BTC fell to around $59,000 on Wednesday but has since bounced back above $61,000.
- The two-way volatility has been detrimental for leveraged futures positions overall. Centralized exchanges liquidated nearly $1 billion in crypto futures in just 24 hours, with the majority of these being long positions.
- Despite this, bitcoin's futures open interest (OI) increased to 763K BTC, the highest since June 4, following a period of relative stability around 730K BTC. This price drop has drawn in capital, but not necessarily in a bullish direction. In fact, annualized funding rates have turned negative, indicating that traders are paying a premium for downside exposure.
- The ether futures market hasn't shown a significant rise in OI, and funding rates remain slightly positive.
- SOL's OI is near Wednesday's record high, with funding rates remaining largely neutral, indicating balanced market positioning. XRP's OI is also at its highest since October.
- For the third consecutive day, the OI-normalized, 24-hour cumulative volume delta for most cryptocurrencies, including BTC, is negative. This suggests that bearish traders are dominating the price movements by shorting at market prices instead of utilizing passive limit orders.
- The 30-day implied volatility in BTC, measured by BVIV, has decreased to 46% from a high of 51%, suggesting a reduction in "fear" among traders, which supports the cryptocurrency's overnight recovery. The same trend is observed in ether's implied volatility index, EVIV.
- However, ether is perceived as more volatile than BTC, with implied volatilities exceeding bitcoin's by 10 points or more across various timeframes.
- Options skews for the top two cryptocurrencies reveal persistent and strengthening downside concerns. For example, BTC's one-week skew indicates a nearly 25-point volatility premium for puts, implying that upside bets are currently less expensive and could attract significant demand if Thursday's U.S. Core PCE for May shows a slowdown in inflation.
Token talk
- The altcoin sector experienced a pronounced rebound on Thursday following losses on Wednesday, reflecting a low-liquidity market.
- Jupiter (JUP) dropped over 12% within six hours on Wednesday before rebounding by more than 18%, leading to liquidations of futures traders in both directions.
- Data from Coinglass indicates that $1 billion in futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with $585 million coming from altcoin trading pairs.
- Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens AAVE and ETHFI also saw positive performance on Thursday, increasing by 2.5% and 4.7%, respectively, since midnight.
- Conversely, AI-focused tokens struggled to recover, with RENDER and NEAR experiencing losses between 0.8% and 1.9% despite rebounds in other crypto sectors.
- Solana (SOL), a layer-1 network token, plummeted to $64 on Wednesday, marking a 75% drop since September, with a break below the June 6 low of $60 indicating its lowest price since December 2023.
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CEX Volumes Decline to Lowest Level Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Decline to Lowest Level Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Hit Record High
In May, total exchange volumes experienced a 3.45% decline, reaching $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes, however, increased by 10.4% against this trend, setting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, total exchange volumes experienced a 3.45% decline, reaching $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes, however, increased by 10.4% against this trend, setting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volumes experienced a 3.45% decline, reaching $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes, however, increased by 10.4% against this trend, setting a new all-time high.
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