Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views and insights shared are solely his and do not reflect those of Decrypt. Also, check out our new daily news show that summarizes the leading stories in just 5 minutes, available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Good morning!
Here are the key updates for today:
- Major cryptocurrencies fell by 3-4%, with BTC at $73.3k
- Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeded $1 billion over the last two days, marking the highest outflows since January
- HYPE dropped 9% despite positive inflows into ETFs
- Jefferies forecasts a $1 trillion crypto public market following upcoming IPOs
- A Google engineer has been arrested for insider trading related to Polymarket
📉 Significant Outflows Pressure Crypto Prices
Bitcoin fell below $73,000 on Thursday morning, currently trading at $73,260, which is a 3.4% decline over the past 24 hours and the lowest level in six weeks.
Two main factors appear to be influencing this price decline: escalating conflict in Iran and a record day for Bitcoin ETF outflows.
Regarding the situation in Iran, renewed military actions and a collapse in ceasefire discussions have driven oil prices up by 2.5%, negatively impacting risk assets. The earlier optimism surrounding a peace agreement has dissipated.
The ETF situation is concerning. On Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows reached -$733.40 million, the worst day since January 29. Coupled with Monday’s -$333.60 million, the total outflow for the two days surpasses $1 billion. Following eight consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs have lost over $2.6 billion since May 15.
In terms of other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum fell below $2,000 for the first time since April, trading at $1,983, which represents a 33% decline year-to-date. Even HYPE, which has been a standout performer this year with a 123% increase, is down 10% today at $56.44. With a $6.25 billion options expiry today at a max pain level of $75,000, the market is currently $1,700 below this threshold as it heads into settlement.
In wider market trends, gold is down 1.4% at $4,386, and stock futures are negative, with the Nasdaq down 0.5%. While the entire market is facing declines, the cryptocurrency sector seems to be hit the hardest.
💰 Potential for a $1 Trillion Crypto Public Market
Jefferies anticipates a wave of public listings in the crypto and blockchain sectors over the next two years, predicting that it could lead to a $1 trillion public market within five years.
This forecast follows Jefferies' inaugural Digital Assets Investor Conference in New York, where executives from 35 digital asset firms engaged with approximately 150 institutional investors. Discussions have shifted from merely speculating on Bitcoin prices to focusing on integrating blockchain technology into traditional financial systems, including tokenized money market funds and private credit.
Jefferies specifically noted:
- Tokenization as a key driver of this transition,
- Regulatory frameworks could further expedite adoption, especially among large, regulated financial institutions, and
- The proposed Clarity Act may serve as a crucial element facilitating broader institutional investment.
The IPOs Jefferies is monitoring include Payward, the parent company of Kraken (confidential S-1 filed, aiming for a $20 billion valuation), Securitize (an SEC-registered tokenization platform), Blockchain.com (S-1 filed last week), and Gemini.
In addition to crypto-native firms, Jefferies sees potential public listings from traditional financial players involved in blockchain infrastructure. This outlook comes at a time when Ledger, ConsenSys, and other companies have postponed their IPO plans due to a 75% drop in crypto trading volumes this year, with Fundstrat estimating that processes are “70-80% along the way” and ready to expedite once market conditions improve.
🇺🇸 Political Contributions from Crypto Are Shifting Towards Republicans
Fairshake and its affiliates remain a significant force in political campaigns influenced by crypto, but several new crypto PACs focusing on Republican candidates have emerged, potentially altering the bipartisan dynamics established over multiple election cycles. This shift was highlighted in Tuesday’s Texas primary runoffs.
Crypto-focused political committees invested over $9 million in Texas, aiding numerous primary wins for candidates aligned with the industry across both parties—most notably contributing to the defeat of Rep. Al Green, a prominent critic of crypto, in a rare primary runoff against another incumbent.
This new Republican inclination is stemming from a secondary layer of PACs operating alongside FairShake. The Fellowship PAC, linked to Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald, contributed $500,000 to support Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s successful campaign against incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, a race that FairShake’s bipartisan structure could not enter. Paxton is perceived as more favorable to crypto deregulation compared to Cornyn. The Winklevoss twins have also initiated their own GOP-exclusive groups.
While FairShake continues to build bipartisan support, newer PACs are exclusively Republican, creating an additional political layer that spans both party affiliations. Their efforts have shown some early success…
🚩 Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading at Polymarket
A Google security engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, has been arrested and charged for allegedly engaging in insider trading by betting on Polymarket regarding Google search trends, according to U.S. officials on Wednesday.
A complaint filed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York revealed that Spagnuolo used “material nonpublic information” to wager on who would make it onto Google’s list of most-searched individuals for 2025, following the introduction of these betting markets last fall.
Spagnuolo, 36, operated under the alias AlphaRaccoon. He reportedly used confidential Google data to predict that singer D4vd would be the most-searched individual—a result that was publicly confirmed on December 4, 2025. He transferred $3.8 million in USDC to his Polymarket account to place these bets, resulting in a profit of $1.2 million. He later moved these funds using a swapping service and privacy tool, eventually transferring the funds to a processor in Italy. He faces charges including commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
This marks the second insider trading case related to Polymarket that the SDNY has pursued this year, following the case involving Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who bet on the Maduro raid he took part in.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies are down 3-4%; BTC -3% at $73.3k; ETH -5% at $1,980; SOL -4% at $81; HYPE -10% at $56.5
- XLM (+21%), RAIN (+8%) and STABLE (+1%) were among the top gainers
- Oil +2% at $92; Gold -1.5% at $4,380
- Stock futures are negative, with the Nasdaq down 0.5%
- SoFi launched SoFiUSD on Wednesday, a dollar-pegged stablecoin on Ethereum and Solana, becoming the first U.S. national bank to offer a stablecoin issued by a bank directly in a consumer banking app to its 15 million members
- Block began rolling out USDC stablecoin payments to Cash App's nearly 60 million users on Wednesday, supported on Solana, Ethereum, Polygon, and Arbitrum
- Mastercard secured a New York BitLicense on Wednesday, paving the way for stablecoin and tokenized deposit settlements within its global payments network
- Fold introduced its Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card on Wednesday after obtaining a $150 million revolving credit line from Encina Lender Finance
- A plaintiff identified as "Noah Doe" filed a lawsuit in New York Supreme Court on May 1, seeking ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin wallets containing around 3.79 million BTC (~$286 billion). He claims to have identified them as abandoned using a proprietary algorithm and physically brought USB drives to the NYPD's 17th Precinct as "lost property," spending a year attempting to return the coins to their owners without any response.
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- The Bitcoin ETFs experienced $733 million in net outflows on Tuesday, marking their worst day since January; the Ethereum ETFs saw $67 million in outflows
- The HYPE ETFs recorded $3 million in net inflows on Tuesday, their worst day since May 13
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme leaders suffered significant losses; DOGE -4%, SHIB -4%, PEPE -7%, PENGU -8%, TRUMP -8%, BONK -11%, SPX -10%, FARTCOIN -9%
- Rich (+76%), Squire (+26%) & Percolator (+48%) were notable gainers on Solana
- Base movers included Deus (+24%) and OFC (+11%)
📈 Myriad Market of the Day
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Polymarket is moving towards mandatory KYC, requiring traders to verify their identities amidst rising legal risks due to sanctions exposure, geoblocking failures, and insider trading incidents
- Meanwhile, the White House has begun reviewing a CFTC proposal on Wednesday that would create the first comprehensive federal framework for overseeing prediction markets
🚚 Current Trends in NFTs
- NFT leaders experienced declines again; Punks -2% at 32 ETH, BAYC -1% at 8.57 ETH, Pudgy -7% at 4.34 ETH; Hypurr’s -5% at 307 HYPE
- Normies (+40%) and Courtyard (+5%) were notable gainers