This week, FalconX’s Gaspar Martin suggests that BTC is nearing a market bottom and is ready for a rebound.
By Caue Teixeira|Edited by Alexandra Levis Jul 8, 2026, 3:18 p.m. 7 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowYou're reading Crypto Long & Short, our weekly newsletter featuring insights, news and analysis for the professional investor. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.
Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week:
- BTC is nearing a market bottom and is set for a rebound, according to Martin Gaspar.
- Key headlines for institutions highlighted by Francisco Rodrigues.
- “Ether.Fi Continues to Lead the Neobank Meta” in Chart of the Week.
Thanks for joining us!
Traditional Signals for BTC as MSTR Issues Resolved
By Martin Gaspar, senior crypto market strategist, FalconX
In analyzing bitcoin BTC$61,695.74 and its four-year cycles, a consistent factor influencing selling pressure has been identified. In 2018, the crypto market's speculative surge led to inflated valuations that could not be sustained, resulting in significant sell-offs. In 2022, forced liquidations from entities like Celsius and FTX added further pressure on prices. Recently, concerns surrounding Strategy (MSTR) regarding potential BTC sales to meet dividend obligations created uncertainty in the market. Fortunately, MSTR has taken definitive measures to alleviate these concerns, enhancing its USD reserves and altering its capital allocation strategy, allowing time for BTC to recover. Consequently, the market can now assess BTC based on its intrinsic value.
The BTC Narrative Remains Crucial
Bitcoin's status as a reliable form of money is underscored by the continuous increase in the money supply, which exceeded $23 trillion for the first time in May. This increase was notable as it marked a month-over-month rise of over 1%, the steepest since 2021. Bitcoin stands out as a viable solution to the rapid expansion of the money supply. While other global issues like the Iran conflict and AI have drawn focus away, BTC could soon reclaim attention in this context.
Unlike gold, a traditional store of value, BTC was designed to be highly divisible and easy to transfer. Its capped supply of 21 million BTC remains unchanged, emphasizing the value of such a neutral asset, which should not be overlooked by investors.
Interpreting Market Signals
As sentiment around MSTR shifts from panic to stability, investors can refocus on standard market indicators related to bitcoin. One significant indicator is the BTC ETFs, which recorded $5.4 billion in outflows year-to-date as of June 30. Notably, this trend is relatively new, with $8.2 billion in outflows since May 12, likely reflecting MSTR-related concerns and adjustments around the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO. With these issues beginning to fade, a return to ETF inflows could indicate a restoration of market confidence. Additionally, BTC's Coinbase premium has seen significant improvement since the quarter's end, suggesting a resurgence in investor interest may be occurring.
Indicators of seller fatigue and accumulation by committed holders are emerging. Historically, BTC tends to stabilize at market bottoms when selling pressure diminishes and dedicated holders increase their accumulation. Currently, around 45% of long-term holder supply is at a loss, as per Checkonchain data, reflecting levels seen in previous market bottoms. This suggests that most sellers have exited the market, leaving only those with strong convictions, who not only withstand volatility but may also be adding to their holdings. This is evident in the data, with BTC supply held by long-term holders reaching unprecedented levels in recent weeks. Furthermore, on-chain movements of long-held BTC have significantly decreased compared to last year, reducing earlier market pressures.
Current Market Conditions
BTC has been in a declining market phase since October, facing a series of challenges that largely do not reflect the fundamental qualities of bitcoin. The critical question now is what happens when these challenges turn into opportunities. With the acceleration in the money supply growth, both sentiment and momentum could shift positively soon.
Indicators of seller fatigue and accumulation by committed holders are emerging. Historically, BTC tends to stabilize at market bottoms when selling pressure diminishes and dedicated holders increase their accumulation. Currently, around 45% of long-term holder supply is at a loss, as per Checkonchain data, reflecting levels seen in previous market bottoms. This suggests that most sellers have exited the market, leaving only those with strong convictions, who not only withstand volatility but may also be adding to their holdings. This is evident in the data, with BTC supply held by long-term holders reaching unprecedented levels in recent weeks. Furthermore, on-chain movements of long-held BTC have significantly decreased compared to last year, reducing earlier market pressures.
Current Market Conditions
BTC has been in a declining market phase since October, facing a series of challenges that largely do not reflect the fundamental qualities of bitcoin. The critical question now is what happens when these challenges turn into opportunities. With the acceleration in the money supply growth, both sentiment and momentum could shift positively soon.
This Week’s Headlines
This week’s news indicates that Strategy (MSTR) is evolving into an active capital manager rather than merely holding bitcoin, while Circle and Tether are encountering new competition from a large stablecoin initiative. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump has faced significant criticism regarding his family's crypto profits.
- Strategy authorizes $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales, raises STRC dividend to 12%: The company has implemented various initiatives under its new Digital Credit Capital Framework to preserve long-term bitcoin exposure, including a $2.55 billion cash reserve and $1 billion each in preferred and common equity buybacks, alongside a Bitcoin Monetization Program allowing BTC sales.
- Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock support new Open USD stablecoin network: Over 140 companies have launched OUSD, a dollar stablecoin featuring no minting or redemption fees that returns most reserve earnings to partners, challenging the leading stablecoin firms Circle and Tether.
- UK's new crypto regulations aim to facilitate global trading but face significant compliance challenges: The framework covers exchanges, custodians, stablecoin issuers, staking providers, and DeFi operators with identifiable controlling entities, providing institutions legal clarity to invest in the UK.
- New York Life launches its first tokenized fund with $807 billion backing: The HYB fund allows investors to subscribe and redeem in USDC while the firm retains the underlying portfolio.
- Trump made over $1 billion from crypto ties amid industry downturn: This amount was the largest part of a $2.2 billion disclosure, surpassing his earnings from real estate and resorts, leading to renewed conflict-of-interest accusations that the White House has denied.
Chart of the Week
Ether.Fi Continues to Lead the Neobank Meta
Ether.Fi (ETHFI) has maintained an average cash card spending volume of $2.5-$3 million daily since early June 2026, indicating consistent product usage. This trend is reflected in ETHFI's token price, which has risen over 12% in the same period.
Listen. Read. Watch. Engage.
- Listen: “From Libra to Open Standard’s OUSD: Insights from Facebook's failed stablecoin,” featuring CoinDesk's The Policy Protocol hosts Rebecca Rettig and Renato Mariotti.
- Read: “Crypto Week Ahead: Key events for the week starting July 6,” by Francisco Rodrigues, edited by Sheldon Reback.
- Watch: “White House to engage with law enforcement on the Clarity Act,” featuring CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie.
- Engage: Will you be attending the London Blockchain Conference? Connect with Soledad Contreras and Tom Mesfin there!
For more updates, follow the latest crypto news at coindesk.com and market insights from coindesk.com/institutions.
Note: The opinions presented in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinDesk, Inc., CoinDesk Indices or its affiliates.
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- 10Reserve Bank of India maintains preference for crypto ban to prevent tax evasion: Reuters6 hours ago
SpaceX IPO Drives Tokenized Equity Volumes to Record as Stablecoin Market Cap Falls
SpaceX IPO Drives Tokenized Equity Volumes to Record as Stablecoin Market Cap Falls
Stablecoin market cap dropped to $312B in June, marking its largest decline since TerraUSD, while tokenized equity volumes surged 145% to a record $3.86B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 7, 2026Stablecoin market cap fell to $312B in June, its largest monthly drop since TerraUSD, while tokenized equity volumes surged 145% to a record $3.86B.
Why it matters:
Stablecoin market cap fell to $312B in June, its largest monthly drop since TerraUSD, while tokenized equity volumes surged 145% to a record $3.86B.
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