Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The views and opinions expressed are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Also, check out our new daily news show covering all the major stories in just 5 minutes, available on Apple Pod or Spotify.
Good morning!
Here are today’s key updates:
- Major cryptocurrencies dropped another 1% following a hawkish FOMC, with BTC priced at $64,000.
- Saylor’s STRC fell to $89, marking a new low; MSTR declined by 5%.
- Illinois has become the first state to implement a crypto tax, imposing a 0.2% tax on broker transactions and holdings.
- The CME is taking legal action against the CFTC regarding their approval of perpetual contracts in the U.S.
- Moody’s has introduced on-chain credit ratings on the Solana blockchain.
🏦 Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Takes a Hawkish Turn
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive hold during Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting as chair. While this was anticipated, Warsh’s hawkish stance was unexpected.
Prior to the meeting, the Fed updated its dot plot, raising the median projection for the year-end 2026 rate to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. This indicates that at least one rate hike is expected this year, rather than a cut. Half of the committee members support a rate increase as early as 2026, citing a strong labor market and inflation at a three-year peak. Notably, Warsh opted not to submit a dot.
While the dot plot itself was hawkish, Warsh’s remarks during the press conference solidified this view. He emphasized the Fed's dedication to maintaining price stability, suggesting that he may not deliver the cuts many anticipated from a Trump appointee, and he removed any easing bias from the statement. His clear priority is to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, leading the market to interpret this as a signal that rate hikes are forthcoming.
The market reacted sharply to this news. The 2-year Treasury yield surged over 16 basis points to 4.22%, and the Dow dropped 507 points after reaching a record high earlier in the day. Expectations for a rate hike by the September meeting soared to about 70% (with a 20% chance of a double hike), up from approximately 30% the previous day. The December meeting now has an 88% probability of at least one rate hike, while the likelihood of a rate cut in 2026 has plummeted to zero.
This scenario affects the potential for a summer recovery in crypto, which had hoped for a “winter is over” bounce. The thesis relied on the conclusion of the war and increased liquidity, but a hawkish Fed counteracts this, tightening conditions for risk assets with rising yields, a stronger dollar, and no anticipated cuts. Bitcoin fell to $64,000 in response, MSTR dropped 5%, and STRC hit a new low at $89. However, given that stocks have rebounded this morning and are showing gains in pre-market trading, it seems this may primarily be a crypto issue rather than a broader market concern. It’s possible that the overhang from Saylor is influencing these movements.
In any case, it appears we may face a summer filled with volatility and potential declines.
🚩 Illinois First to Enact a Crypto Tax
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed a $55.9 billion state budget that includes the Digital Asset Privilege Tax Act, imposing a 0.2% tax on crypto transactions effective January 1, 2027. This makes Illinois the first state in the U.S. to directly tax digital asset transactions rather than just taxing capital gains.
This tax applies to digital asset brokers, exchanges, custodians, and platforms that handle crypto transactions for customers. They must register with the state and remit 0.2% of the transaction value, facing felony charges for non-compliance. Out-of-state brokers become liable once their Illinois sales exceed $100,000. It is estimated that this will generate around $60 million in revenue.
The industry has expressed concern that the burden of this tax will extend beyond businesses. Structured like a sales tax, it is triggered by customer transactions within the state, meaning brokers are likely to pass these costs on to users. Thus, an Illinois resident buying, selling, moving, or holding crypto through an exchange will incur the 0.2% fee on every taxable transaction—not just annually on gains. This means that merely holding Bitcoin on platforms like Coinbase will result in a tax, as will every transaction. This is concerning.
Industry organizations, including the Crypto Council for Innovation and a16z, have criticized this as the first state tax that penalizes individuals for simply engaging in crypto transactions, arguing that it uniquely targets digital assets unlike taxes on stocks or bonds.
Moreover, the implications of this tax could set a precedent. If Illinois successfully implements this tax without a mass exodus of companies, other states may follow suit. Additionally, there is the possibility of incrementally raising the tax rate from 0.2% over time.
The timing of the Act complicates challenges against it. The provision was added late in the budget process, Pritzker has already enacted it, and the legislature is not in session, leaving limited avenues for immediate amendments before 2027. Legal challenges may be the only recourse, and initial reactions suggest that such challenges are likely to arise soon.
This is one of the most anti-crypto laws in the U.S.
It taxes the exchange, transfer, or storage of digital assets—you buy BTC, you pay a tax; you hold your BTC on Coinbase, you pay a tax; and so on.
There is effectively no comparable state financial transaction tax on stocks,… https://t.co/vreRHHAAl4
— miles jennings (@milesjennings) June 17, 2026
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies remain down 1% after a hawkish FOMC, despite a stock market rebound; BTC -1% at $64k; ETH -1% at $1,749; SOL -1% at $72; HYPE +1% at $72.
- HASH (+16%), XLM (+10%), and ALGO (+7%) were among the top gainers.
- Oil -2% at $75; Gold -2.5% at $4,270.
- Stock futures are in the green, with the Nasdaq up 1.4% and the DOW +0.3%.
- Saylor’s STRC dipped to as low as $89.30 yesterday, marking a new low; meanwhile, the Strategy X account boasted of having “32 years of dividend coverage through our BTC reserve”.
- The CME is suing the CFTC over their approval of perpetual futures in the U.S., which allows companies like Kalshi and Coinbase to launch the product.
- Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who allocates around 70% of his investment portfolio to Bitcoin, called it superior to real estate as a store of value.
- Fidelity and State Street have entered the stablecoin market with compliant reserve-management funds.
- Moody’s has launched on-chain credit ratings on Solana, marking a significant move by one of the major rating agencies into the blockchain space.
- BitGo shares increased after the crypto custodian revealed a $50 million buyback plan.
- Grayscale projected AAVE could rise to $175 (a 130% increase) over the next year if regulatory clarity improves.
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- The Bitcoin ETFs experienced $82M in net outflows on Wednesday; the ETH ETFs saw $29M in outflows.
- The HYPE ETFs registered $2M in net inflows on Wednesday.
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme leaders were in the red; DOGE -2%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -2%, PENGU -5%, TRUMP -1%, BONK -2%, SPX -9%, FARTCOIN -5%.
- AVICI (+47%), CARDS (+23%), and Jotchua (+65%) led the movers on Solana.
- Base movers included SYND (+150%) and LBM (+50%).
📈 Myriad Market of the Day
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- A federal judge in Michigan ruled that sports prediction markets do not fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, determining that Polymarket is unlikely to prevail in its case against state regulators.
- Stablecoin payments startup Trace Finance secured $32 million from investors including CoinFund and Coinbase to advance its cross-border stablecoin technology.
🚚 NFT Developments
- NFT leaders mostly remained stable; Punks steady at 33.5 ETH, BAYC down 2% at 9 ETH, Pudgy stable at 4.48 ETH; Hypurr’s down 5% at 239 HYPE.
- World Flag (+150%) and Hilma af Klint (+800%) were the top gainers.