Conditions for Bitcoin miners have tightened significantly, with much of the global equipment operating at a loss. This is highlighted in a report by CoinShares.

According to analysts, the fourth quarter of 2025 was the most challenging for Bitcoin miners since the last halving. The average cost of mining one coin for publicly traded companies reached $79,995.

Meanwhile, the hash price has dropped to $36-38 per PH/s per day. Three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, the first since July 2022, signaled miner capitulation.

In the first quarter, the figure fell even further to $29, indicating new challenges for the industry, analysts noted.

As of this writing, the figure has recovered to $33.6 but remains one of the lowest levels in five years. 

Pressure on miners has already impacted the network. On March 20, Bitcoin mining difficulty plummeted by 7.7%—one of the sharpest declines this year.

Unprofitable Operations

CoinShares experts estimate that 15-20% of miners are operating at a loss. Those at risk include operators with outdated equipment and high electricity costs.

Miners using mid-generation devices are operating below breakeven at the current hash price, especially if they pay $0.05 per kWh for electricity. To maintain profitability, they need rates below this threshold.

Modern farms maintain high margins even at standard industrial rates.

Analysts warned that stagnation in Bitcoin prices will worsen the situation for market participants. According to research head James Butterfill, a prolonged downturn will lead to the shutdown of unprofitable operations, slowing hash rate growth and ultimately balancing profitability.

“If the price does not rise above $80,000 by the end of the year, the hash price will continue to decline and likely plateau as weaker players exit the network,” he suggested.

Experts believe the current situation is not a cyclical phenomenon but a structural contraction of viable operators. Only those with structural advantages—efficient equipment and access to cheap electricity—will survive.

As of this writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $69,300. The asset's price has dropped by 3% in the last 24 hours (CoinGecko).

In March, analysts from Wintermute declared the traditional Bitcoin mining model outdated.