In its annual report, CoinEx Research — the research arm of CoinEx exchange — projects Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by the end of 2026.

In March, ForkLog spoke with CoinEx's chief analyst Jeff Ko. We discussed the validity of this forecast, the conditions necessary for its realization, why the halving cycle is breaking down, and the future of the industry.

On the Forecast and Halving

ForkLog: CoinEx's base forecast is for Bitcoin to hit $180,000 by the end of 2026. Currently, it's trading around $70,000. What conditions need to be met for this forecast to materialize?

Jeff Ko: $180,000 is a probability-weighted scenario, not a guarantee. We maintain this forecast based on macro factors, supply cycles, and the development of institutional infrastructure. However, we follow the data, not narratives.

The main driver of Bitcoin's trajectory is the global liquidity cycle. For our base scenario to play out, the Fed must shift to sustained easing — not just one or two rate cuts, but a clear policy reversal. Historically, when real rates fall and the dollar weakens, capital flows into riskier and "hard" assets, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

At the same time, regulatory clarity must cease to be a structural impediment. Markets dislike uncertainty more than bad news. If the Clarity Act is passed in the U.S., it would be a significant step toward a workable federal framework for digital assets. Combined with regulatory progress in Europe and key Asian markets, this would pave the way for broader institutional participation — from asset managers, corporations, and treasurers.

ForkLog: Under what scenario would you officially revise your target?

Jeff Ko: If the Fed returns to aggressive tightening — for instance, if inflation accelerates above 4-5% and rate cuts are postponed until mid-2026 — the macro foundation of our forecast would weaken, and we would likely revise our target.

It's also probable that U.S. economic policy will increasingly be shaped by the combination of [Fed Chair candidate] Kevin Warsh as a monetary guide and [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent as the executor of fiscal strategy. Both, in our view, are intellectual followers of Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital. As this policy evolves, we will monitor its impact on liquidity, rates, and risk assets.

ForkLog: CoinEx Research claims that the four-year halving cycle is being "broken" under institutional pressure. However, the current correction — about 47% from the October ATH — visually resembles classic bear phases from past cycles. What data convinces you that this is a structural break rather than the same pattern with new participants?

Jeff Ko: In previous cycles, Bitcoin dropped closer to 80%. In our report, we stated that we do not expect such a crash in the current cycle. A 47% correction is painful, but it generally aligns with our expectations.

The most significant structural change is that spot ETFs have created a stable, non-cyclical level of demand. In past cycles, there was no regulated institutional mechanism for purchases of this scale operating continuously. It's not just about the assets under ETF management or headlines about inflows, but how these flows behave during stress periods.

Previously, corrections were dominated by retail investor capitulation — cascading liquidations without significant institutional counter-bids. Now, we still see net inflows into ETFs, indicating persistent institutional demand that absorbs selling pressure.

At the same time, the role of derivatives is changing. They used to amplify volatility. Today, the market structure is different: if you look at the open interest composition in Bitcoin futures on CME, the picture has changed. In 2020-2021, positions on CME were primarily held by trend-following traders and hedge funds with directional bets. Now, a significant portion is held by arbitrageurs capitalizing on the difference between spot and futures prices. They are indifferent to market direction, so they panic less during declines — stabilizing volatility rather than exacerbating it.

Volatility compression is occurring noticeably earlier than in previous cycles. We view this as a sign of market maturity, deeper liquidity, and a broader holder base.

We also track the 90-day moving correlation of Bitcoin with Nasdaq. The relationship is inconsistent: during events within the crypto industry, Bitcoin moves independently, while during global macro shocks, it synchronizes with the stock market. This confirms that Bitcoin has moved beyond a simple halving cycle. Its price is now influenced by a combination of three factors: global liquidity, institutional flows, and events within the crypto industry.

On Altcoins and Listing Strategies

ForkLog: In December 2025, Cointelegraph quoted you: liquidity will be "ruthlessly selective — flowing only to 'blue chips' with real applications." Meanwhile, CoinEx is betting on broad support for altcoins. How do you reconcile the research thesis that effectively warns against broad alt trading with the exchange's business model?

Jeff Ko: I see no contradiction that needs resolving. The research thesis is about the expected dispersion of returns. We did not anticipate a broad, indiscriminate alt season and expected liquidity to concentrate in "blue chips" with real applications. This is a market forecast, not a directive on which assets CoinEx should or shouldn’t offer.

The exchange serves a different function. Its role is to provide users access to a wide range of assets, liquidity, and trading tools. Our position is simple: analytics show where we see the best risk-return ratio, and the platform provides tools for users to act at their discretion.

A broad listing is not the same as a recommendation. Supporting a large number of altcoins does not mean we endorse them as long-term investments. The crypto market is an open environment with heterogeneous demand: some users seek long-term investments, others short-term trading opportunities, some want access to specific ecosystems, while others wish to enter projects at an early stage.

On New CoinEx Products

ForkLog: In 2025, CoinEx launched three products targeting different audiences: CoinEx Vault, CoinEx OnChain and CoinEx Pay. What strategically unites them? Which of the three is the priority growth vector?

Jeff Ko: The strategic connection between Vault, OnChain, and Pay lies in our product philosophy: we develop solutions based on real user needs, not chasing hype. Since the platform is built around crypto trading, each new product addresses trading needs, aids decision-making, and simplifies transaction management.

We do not view these three products as separate "second growth curves." They are point solutions for current spot and futures traders.

Vault and Pay are value-added services within the ecosystem. Vault provides institutional clients with secure non-custodial storage for treasury management. Pay addresses the need for seamless cryptocurrency transactions in the real world.

Of the three products, OnChain is closest to our core business — trading. It allows users to buy and sell niche tokens and early-stage projects directly within the CoinEx interface, without waiting for an official spot listing.

Our main growth vector is the continuous optimization of the trading experience. Vault, OnChain, and Pay are infrastructural pillars that support and expand this mission.

ForkLog: CoinEx OnChain allows trading DEX-tokens without a separate wallet. Meanwhile, the DEX/CEX ratio has risen from 6% in 2021 to 21.2% in 2025 — users are increasingly confident in working with decentralized exchanges. Is OnChain a transitional product that will become obsolete as DEX UX improves, or do CEXs have a long-term niche in on-chain?

Jeff Ko: OnChain is not a temporary solution. The product gives users access to decentralized liquidity without sacrificing the convenience of a centralized exchange.

We see the share of DEX in total trading volume growing and view this as a signal that centralized exchanges need to evolve. CEX can no longer be the only place where users trade. Its role is to become a convenient entry point to on-chain markets, handling complexity and ensuring protection.

Centralized exchanges have a long-term role within the on-chain ecosystem, but it is changing. Previously, CEXs won based on storage convenience, onboarding, and fiat gateways. Now, they will maintain their positions by addressing aggregation, compliance, execution convenience, and user protection.

Even if DEX interfaces become significantly more user-friendly, many users will not want to store seed phrases, manually transfer assets between networks, confirm each transaction separately, and deal with gas fees. CoinEx OnChain exists for them.

ForkLog: CoinEx Vault enters the institutional custody market, dominated by Fireblocks, BitGo, and Copper, as well as solutions from Coinbase and other exchanges. What specific advantage does Vault have over competitors?

Jeff Ko: An important clarification: we are not trying to take market share from specialized custodians like BitGo or Coinbase. Vault is a solution for our users who need reliable asset storage within the CoinEx ecosystem.

For them, the key advantage of Vault is the balance of physical security and zero deployment costs. Unlike traditional institutional custody, where clients relinquish control over private keys, CoinEx Vault is a non-custodial solution with full user control.

We employ a "triple trust framework": the mobile app, web interface, and server are physically and logically isolated from each other, eliminating single points of failure. Vault allows teams to turn offline smartphones into cold wallets — without the costs of proprietary hardware. As a result, Vault offers inexpensive, secure storage where users fully control their keys.

On BTCFi

ForkLog: At Hack Seasons in February 2025, you noted that most PoW-chains lack smart contracts, limiting DeFi development. Given ViaBTC's mining roots: is CoinEx ready to become a hub for BTCFi products? What do you think about the viability of this ecosystem?

Jeff Ko: In terms of direction — yes, but execution is more important than branding. ViaBTC's roots give CoinEx a natural advantage: deeper relationships with Bitcoin users, miners, and long-term BTC holders than many exchanges focused on altcoins.

To become a BTCFi hub, it's not enough to list BTCFi tokens. CoinEx must become an access point for BTCFi exposure. Most users do not want to deal with wallet fragmentation, bridges, UTXO specifics, L2 nuances, or smart contract risks directly. A centralized exchange adds value by simplifying discovery, trading, education, and capital rotation into BTCFi products.

Most importantly, CoinEx must introduce risk filtering. A reliable BTCFi hub helps users distinguish the core infrastructure adjacent to Bitcoin from quality yield platforms and speculative "wrappers" or weak tokens that may not survive a full cycle.

The BTCFi segment is viable in the long term because it addresses a real problem: Bitcoin is the largest underutilized asset in crypto. A massive amount of BTC simply sits in wallets. If even a small portion transitions into lending, collateral, yield strategies, or stablecoin backing — that’s a trillion-dollar market. But the narrative of "Bitcoin entering DeFi" alone is insufficient. The direction will survive only if it provides Bitcoin holders with real benefits without requiring them to take on excessive risks.

On Mass Adoption

ForkLog: At TOKEN2049, you said that Web3 needs a "better Facebook, Instagram, or Visa" for mass adoption. After eight years in the industry — what is closest to such a killer app?

Jeff Ko: Over the last decade, we have seen countless narratives and buzzwords. Some drove technological progress, while others created speculative bubbles. When it comes to a true killer app for mass adoption, two directions emerge beyond the noise.

The first is cross-border payments based on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. This is a tangible solution to a real problem — friction in traditional finance — and it has already gained widespread acceptance. The second is DeFi protocols that leverage decentralized blockchain principles: AMMs, next-generation liquidity pools, decentralized perpetual contracts. These are fundamental innovations that have restructured price discovery and liquidity mechanisms.

On Tokenization of Real Assets

ForkLog: According to data, the volume of tokenized real assets on the blockchain reached $26 billion in early 2026. Which categories of RWA are overvalued, and which are undervalued?

Jeff Ko: When evaluating tokenization, we first ask: is the tokenized asset genuinely easier to buy and sell than the original? That’s why we are skeptical about tokenized venture capital and private equity.

The idea is attractive: to make illiquid assets that historically cannot be sold quickly liquid. But in practice, the token wrapper changes little. The returns of private equity funds depend on the manager's work with portfolio companies, access to information, and influence over decisions — not on whether a token is issued.

Tokenization does not accelerate returns and does not eliminate the initial loss period typical of venture capital. The promised liquidity of the secondary market remains on paper — there are still too few buyers for these tokens. In our view, this segment is overvalued.

Among undervalued categories are tokenized government bonds and short-term government securities. This segment has already found its user base. It is not ignored, but we believe the market is not yet aware of how large it can become. Tokenized government bonds are a ready foundation for cash management, collateral, and settlements on the blockchain. No other category of RWA today combines so many advantages: clear legal status, predictable returns, institutional interest, and ease of use.

Another promising area is tokenized trade finance. This is a trillion-dollar market that still operates slowly: paper documentation, opaque counterparty risks, and small businesses struggle to access financing. Blockchain addresses specific issues: documents cannot be retroactively forged, payments are triggered automatically based on set conditions, and the entire transaction history is transparent.

We also see long-term potential in tokenized lending for small and medium-sized enterprises. Banks often deny small companies: they lack collateral, face too much bureaucracy, and decisions depend on personal connections. Tokenization can change this. Loans are pooled on the blockchain, where the borrower's payment history is visible, collateral is managed automatically, and reporting is available in real-time. This opens up access for investors — both retail and institutional — to a segment with potentially good returns.