Summary
- William Blair has reduced its EBITDA projections for Coinbase for 2026 and 2027 by 34%, while also lowering revenue estimates by 12–13%, yet it continues to uphold an outperform rating, forecasting a earnings recovery by 2027.
- On Wednesday, shares of Coinbase and Circle both saw increases of approximately 3–4% following the report from William Blair, which noted that significant risks have already been factored into stock prices and both companies are well-positioned for a Bitcoin rebound; COIN has dropped nearly 30% this year, while CRCL has fallen about 20%.
- John Bollinger, the developer of the Bollinger Bands volatility tool, identified a fractal "W" double-bottom pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, suggesting that this could signal a trend reversal.
Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) experienced a 3–4% increase on Wednesday, despite a downgrade in revenue and earnings forecasts from William Blair, a prominent investment firm known for its focus on tech and growth sectors.
The crux of the analysis suggests that the negative impacts are already reflected in the current stock prices. William Blair stated, “We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase.”
Revenue projections for Coinbase in 2026 were cut by 12% and by 13% for 2027, while adjusted EBITDA estimates were slashed by 34% for both years. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury indicated that earnings are expected to bottom out in the latter half of 2026 before a recovery in 2027, encouraging investors to remain committed as spot crypto trading volume is anticipated to stabilize alongside Bitcoin prices.
William Blair forecasts that Coinbase's total trading volume will decline by approximately 44% this year, reaching $669 billion, but is expected to rebound by over 32% in 2027.
The firm believes this market cycle differs from 2022 due to the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional investment, and a more developed regulatory environment compared to four years ago.
Additionally, Coinbase's Base layer-2 network could become a significant revenue driver, with retail derivatives and prediction markets enhancing the revenue stream beyond just spot trading—retail derivatives alone surpassed $200 million annualized in Q1.
In contrast, Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley has lowered his price target for Coinbase from $170 to $155, maintaining a “neutral” outlook. He emphasized the importance of prediction markets and perpetual futures as key narratives for Q2, particularly as the World Cup spurred substantial growth in prediction market activity, while cautioning about the potential risks associated with perpetual futures as Q3 approaches.
So far this year, Coinbase has seen a decline of nearly 30%, paralleling a roughly 26% drop in Bitcoin prices. Circle, which made a notable debut on the NYSE in June 2025 at $31 per share, has also decreased by around 20% since the start of the year.
John Bollinger's Insights on Bitcoin's Potential Surge
Technical analysts are also expressing similar sentiments. John Bollinger, a seasoned technical analyst and creator of Bollinger Bands, has been observing a developing pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart since early July.
On July 2, Bollinger shared his analysis on X, noting the emergence of a "W" double-bottom pattern. This formation is characterized by two swing lows with a rebound in between, becoming bullish when the price surpasses the resistance at the peak between the lows.
He described the setup as "perfectly fractal," where smaller instances of the same shape are nested within the larger pattern, and it is also visible on the weekly chart. He acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding this pattern, as previous bullish setups have been thwarted by selling pressure throughout this cycle.
Here is a chart highlighting a developing 'W' pattern in bitcoin:native. Note that it is perfectly fractal. The are small 'w's at the nadirs and a small 'm' at the apex. For extra credit look at the weekly to see a higher time frame fractal 'W'.https://t.co/jcmfX6NXRy
— John Bollinger (@bbands) July 2, 2026
In a more recent post, Bollinger mentioned that if this "W" pattern completes, it would signal a "confirmation of a change in trend." This is the clearest indication he has given publicly that the trend may be shifting rather than merely pausing.
We are at a critical point. In a bear market bullish setups break and in a bull market bearish setups break. So if this W pattern is successful I would see it as a confirmation of a change in trend.
— John Bollinger (@bbands) July 6, 2026
Bollinger has also revealed a long position in Bitcoin through his investment firm earlier this year, aligning his analysis and personal investments. Although Bitcoin's current price trend remains bearish, it appears to be losing momentum.
Is Bitcoin's Bottom Behind Us?
As per Glassnode's recent weekly analysis, long-term holder capitulation, which has been the primary source of selling pressure throughout the year, reached its peak two weeks ago and is now declining. The metric that tracks daily surrender by long-term holders, adjusted to exclude internal transfers, peaked and is now decreasing for the first time in this cycle.
During June's lows, buyers emerged, with Glassnode recording a significant wave of accumulation across wallets of all sizes. Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar has strengthened, while its relationship with U.S. equities has weakened, and it has shown renewed sensitivity to positive macroeconomic news: the recent soft inflation report impacted Bitcoin more significantly than any major equity index.
The key challenge for both on-chain analysts and Wall Street remains the lack of sustained spot-driven buying to confirm a recovery.
While derivative positions are unwinding, long-term sellers are diminishing, and the fear premium in the options market is decreasing, the necessary capital influx has not yet fully materialized. William Blair anticipates an inflection point in 2027, predicting a 32% increase in Coinbase trading volume following this year's projected 44% decline.