Summary
- The Senate is set to vote on cloture for the Clarity Act at 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to advance H.R. 3633 for debate.
- Sen. Cynthia Lummis has indicated the updated bill incorporates over 120 requests from Democrats, including new ethics restrictions that former President Trump accepted.
- Polymarket's prediction odds for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 dropped to 19% on Tuesday from 35% the previous day, coinciding with Bitcoin's decline below $77,000.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, a staunch advocate for Bitcoin and digital assets, has asserted that Democrats have run out of valid objections to the Clarity Act, but supporters of this crucial legislation may be running out of time.
In anticipation of Tuesday's Senate vote, the Wyoming Republican stated that the final text of the Clarity Act meets the demands of Democrats, featuring over 120 negotiated amendments and a new ethics framework that applies to the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges. Her message was clear: accept the offer.
Myriad: Will Congress pass the Clarity Act? Click to make your prediction.However, she warned that if lawmakers cannot secure sufficient Democratic support to pass the cloture vote today—the procedure that would end debate and allow for a final vote—there may not be another opportunity to revisit the issue.
“It's now or never for the Clarity Act,” Lummis stated on X.
It's now or never for the Clarity Act.
Dems can lock in 120+ negotiated wins: a historic ethics agreement covering the President, VP, Congress & federal judges, plus the certainty consumers and this industry need.
To get there, Democrats need to join us in voting yes at 2:15. https://t.co/GEr4r9cpKO
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) September 15, 2026
Lummis informed reporters earlier that if the cloture vote does not succeed, “I think we’re done,” according to Punchbowl. “It's over. Because we've been working on this bill for over a year, and we've given them over 120 of their requests. That's enough,” she reportedly asserted.
The Clarity Act represents a long-awaited market structure bill for the crypto sector, dividing the regulatory oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC, thereby providing a clear regulatory framework for most tokens for the first time. The House passed its version in July 2025 with a vote of 294-134. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill in May 2026, with a vote of 15-9, which included only two Democratic votes.
Today's vote is a cloture motion on H.R. 3633, not the final passage. It requires 60 votes to conclude debate and proceed to the floor, meaning Republicans need around seven Democrats to join them, given their 53-seat majority. To facilitate this, the White House has agreed to new measures prohibiting federally elected officials, judges, and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, with enforcement by state attorneys general and no expiration date.
Fluctuating Odds
Prediction markets have seen significant fluctuations throughout the week. Polymarket's odds for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 increased to 35% on Monday after the final text was released, then dropped to 19% on Tuesday as Democrats circulated a counterproposal. Current estimates indicate a 55% chance that more than 50 senators will vote in favor today, yet only a 32% probability that the bill will meet the 60-vote requirement.
Myriad Markets has set the odds as low as 17.5%, slightly above today's low of around 12%.
Some Democrats remain skeptical that the ethics provisions are sufficient. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the leading Democrat on the Banking Committee, intends to argue on the Senate floor that the new regulations still have enforcement gaps and do not adequately cover the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture. Several Democratic holdouts have expressed similar concerns regarding consumer protections and safeguards against illicit financing, despite Republicans revising the bill twice during the recess.
If the cloture motion fails, the bill will be effectively dead for 2026, as midterm campaigning will soon dominate the legislative calendar. Supporters and community bankers have spent weeks lobbying senators directly in their home states regarding the bill's remaining provisions, including stablecoin yield regulations that continue to raise concerns in the banking sector.
Current Crypto Market Trends
Market participants are reacting to uncertainty. Bitcoin is currently priced at $76,212, down 3.3%, which is about 7% lower than its September peak, while ether has decreased by 4.64% to $2,414.55, and XRP has fallen 2.61% to $1.38. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped 2.99% to $2.6 trillion, even as the Fear & Greed Index remains at 65, indicating a state of "greed."
Derivatives markets are experiencing heightened volatility. The market recorded $636.89 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours as bearish sentiment grows, with liquidations split between $466.19 million in long positions and $170.69 million in shorts.
The voting is scheduled for today at 2:15 p.m. ET.