The likelihood of the CLARITY Act being approved this year has hit an all-time low on Polymarket, as Senate discussions over ethics clauses continue to stall.
By Helene Braun|Edited by Nikhilesh De Jul 17, 2026, 6:00 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on U.S. President Donald Trump (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)SummaryShow- Polymarket now estimates the chances of the Clarity Act passing by year-end at 32%, marking a significant drop since the market opened in January.
- Senate discussions are primarily aimed at garnering Democratic support, with a bipartisan ethics clause identified as the main hurdle.
- Industry leaders are pressing Congress to enact the legislation, asserting that it would clarify SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, thereby reducing regulatory ambiguity and encouraging domestic crypto activities.
The probability of the Clarity Act being enacted this year has plummeted to a new low on Polymarket, signaling a rising doubt that Congress will finalize this significant crypto market structure bill before the conclusion of 2025.
As of Friday, traders assigned a mere 32% chance of the legislation passing by December 31, 2026, a decline of about 30 percentage points since the market's inception on January 11. The odds reached a peak of 82% on February 19 but have consistently decreased since early May as Congress's legislative timeline has tightened and uncertainty has grown regarding the potential for bipartisan support necessary to move the bill forward.
This decline persists despite ongoing behind-the-scenes discussions.
Earlier this month, lawmakers were finalizing an updated legislative draft anticipated to be released shortly, although it still lacked Democratic endorsement. President Donald Trump was expected to have a meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday to talk about the bill.
The absence of an ethics provision is one of the most significant obstacles. Senator Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of the two Democrats who supported the bill in the Senate Banking Committee, has consistently stated he won't back the legislation on the Senate floor without a bipartisan ethics clause. Other Democrats have echoed similar concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.
As of Friday, there was no public update on Thursday's White House meeting, and no bipartisan ethics language had been produced, leaving a major hurdle unresolved.
If the Clarity Act is enacted, it would create a federal framework for digital asset markets by clearly delineating assets regulated by the SEC from those overseen by the CFTC. Proponents argue that this legislation would replace years of regulatory enforcement with guidelines established by Congress.
Industry leaders reiterated this sentiment during a House hearing on Friday, which marked the one-year anniversary since the chamber passed the legislation.
"The community has already completed the challenging work," stated Sarah Aberg, an executive at Nova Labs, urging legislators that regulatory clarity is necessary, pointing to how uncertainty has hindered investment in the Helium wireless network after an SEC lawsuit against the company that was later settled. "Clarity is not a call for deregulation; it is a call for the correct regulation from the appropriate regulator."
Randy Abernethy, a bullish executive, emphasized that firms require "a rule book" that ensures digital asset markets operate under U.S. oversight, rather than pushing companies abroad. WisdomTree's Ryan Louvar mentioned that such legislation would establish stable regulations that withstand administrative changes, while Coin Center's Jason Sommensatto claimed the bill safeguards software developers without compromising anti-money laundering or investor protections.
With Congress nearing its August recess and a limited number of legislative weeks remaining afterward, traders seem increasingly pessimistic that the bill will reach the president's desk by year-end.
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Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
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CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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