The likelihood of the crypto market structure bill passing this year surged to 43%, a notable increase from a record low last week, despite the reports lacking verification and no official text being available.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Jamie CrawleyUpdated Jul 21, 2026, 11:39 a.m. Published Jul 21, 2026, 11:19 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Clarity Act odds increased significantly on Polymarket following reports of Trump's ethics deal agreement. (Britannica/SOPA Images)SummaryShow- Polymarket participants significantly raised the implied probability that the Clarity Act will be enacted this year, following reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision that had previously delayed the bill.
- The ethics issue, which revolves around the potential profits of high-ranking officials from crypto while in office—heightened by Trump's memecoins and his family's investment in World Liberty Financial—has been the primary barrier to the bill, whose text has not yet been disclosed to Democrats.
- Major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether, and XRP experienced price increases after the Polymarket activity, although traders largely credited the upward trend to the strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.
Traders on Polymarket have notably increased the odds of the Clarity Act's passage this year following reports that President Trump has purportedly agreed to the ethics provision that had been a sticking point for the bill.
The market's estimate of the likelihood that the crypto market structure bill will be enacted in 2026 rose to approximately 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday, marking the lowest point since trading began in January.
This increase corresponds with a series of reports indicating that a significant hurdle in the prolonged negotiations has been overcome.
According to a source familiar with the situation, Democrats have not yet received the bill text, and no text has been made publicly available. The White House and the senators involved have not issued any comments.
The ethics provision has been the final significant barrier to the Clarity Act, which aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, dividing oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The contention revolves around how much officials and political figures can gain from crypto while serving in their roles, a concern heightened by Trump's memecoins and his family's involvement in World Liberty Financial, which disclosed earnings in the millions last month.
This provision was discussed during a July 16 meeting with Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, as well as White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt. The Senate has a deadline to vote by early August.
On Monday, the crypto market continued its rally as reports circulated. Bitcoin BTC$66,251.11 was trading close to $66,300, reflecting a 3% increase over the past 24 hours, while ether and XRP saw gains of around 4%. Traders attributed the rally primarily to the rebound in AI and semiconductor stocks, such as those of Samsung and SK Hynix, although the reported progress on the ethics issue contributed to a positive market sentiment.