Chances for the Clarity Act took a hit on Tuesday as Republicans dismissed a counterproposal from Senate Democrats just before a key procedural vote.
Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a leading Republican figure in the negotiations, criticized the Democrats for presenting a proposal that mirrored their earlier demands before the August break. She remarked, "Senate Democrats’ counteroffer appears to be identical to their original position at the start of the recess. Republicans have made considerable concessions across the board, including agreeing to most of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged at all." Lummis emphasized that genuine negotiations are essential for reaching an agreement.
The political landscape surrounding the Clarity Act has shifted dramatically, as evidenced by betting markets. On Polymarket, the probability of the Act being passed by 2026 dropped to 14%, a significant decrease from around 30% the day before. Similarly, Kalshi traders adjusted their outlook, lowering the chances of a crypto market structure bill being enacted before October 1, 2027, to 36% from approximately 53%.
