Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views and analysis presented are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Additionally, you can check out our daily news show 'FOMO HOUR' for all the leading stories and market updates.
Good Morning!
Here are today’s key highlights:
- Major cryptocurrencies are experiencing a rebound as the likelihood of the Clarity Act increases; BTC is priced at $77.7k.
- The odds of the Clarity Act passing have surged to 31% following Trump's agreement on ethics provisions.
- ETH ETFs attracted $216M in inflows on Friday, contrasting with outflows from BTC ETFs.
- Pump has introduced a new Holder Rewards mechanism to promote holding tokens.
- Activity on the Stonkfun and Robinhood Chain ecosystems has cooled as trading volumes decline.
🏛️ The Clarity Act Momentum Grows Ahead of Tuesday's Vote
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer convened Senate Democrats on Sunday evening to discuss the Clarity Act, just two days prior to a critical vote that will determine the future of cryptocurrency market structure legislation. This meeting follows a discussion Trump had with his advisers on Friday regarding the bill's ethics provisions, which have been a significant hurdle since July. Following this progress, the probability of the bill's passage rose to 31% overnight, marking a significant increase from earlier estimates.
Myriad: Will Congress pass the Clarity Act? Click to make your prediction.President Trump has reportedly expressed his agreement with updated ethics provisions that would limit the crypto activities of himself, his family, and other elected officials. This was a primary concern for many Democrats.
Looking ahead, the Senate is set to vote on cloture at 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. A threshold of sixty votes is necessary to proceed to floor debate; falling short would effectively terminate comprehensive crypto legislation until 2029. The Republican party holds 53 seats, with at least two expected to vote against the bill, indicating that proponents will likely need the support of nine Democrats. As of Friday, no Democrats had publicly committed, with Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) expressing that the revised text still lacks sufficient improvements.
The revised bill, released on Thursday, spans six hundred and thirty pages and includes over 114 new provisions added at the request of Democrats. A significant change mandates that protocols labeled as “decentralized-in-name-only” register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and comply with the Bank Secrecy Act. However, the ethics language remained unchanged, which continues to be a point of contention.
Regardless of the bill's outcome, progress is being made in the regulatory landscape. CFTC Chain's Mike Selig has instructed his team to explore regulatory options under existing authority if Congress fails to act. Additionally, the SEC has proposed allowing blockchains to function as official records of stock ownership. The CFTC has also moved to dismiss the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's lawsuit regarding perpetual contracts, and Coinbase has filed plans to bring single-stock perpetual contracts onshore—all within a two-week span, without new legislation.
If the Clarity Act does pass, the market reaction remains largely unpriced. Ethereum (ETH) is expected to gain significantly, alongside revenue-generating protocols like Hyperliquid and Lighter. A substantial rally across the cryptocurrency market is anticipated, signaling a pivotal week ahead.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies are showing gains of 1-3% as Clarity Act odds increase; BTC +1% at $77.8k; ETH +1% at $2,510; SOL +2% at $101; HYPE +4% at $80; ZEC +3% at $1,130.
- Notable altcoin movements include FIL (+22%), Pendle (+9%) and LIT (+9%).
- Oil prices have risen by 3% to $103; Gold is down 2% at $4,333.
- Stock futures are in the red amid calls for a slowdown in AI developments; DOW -0.2%, Nasdaq -1.5%.
- Dario Amodei has called for a reduction in the pace of frontier AI development, a sentiment echoed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, citing concerns about AI systems that increasingly assist in creating their successors.
- A fraudulent government request bypassed checks at Revolut, exposing personal data including passports, verification selfies, home addresses, and complete Bitcoin transaction histories for an undisclosed number of customers, although no funds were lost.
- India has initiated “Demat 2.0” to tokenize its corporate bonds on a permissioned ledger, settled with the wholesale digital rupee, with companies like REC, Larsen & Toubro, and IIFL Finance already raising approximately $107 million against a $620 billion market.
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs experienced $13M in net outflows on Friday, while ETH ETFs saw a significant $216M in inflows, highlighting a stark contrast.
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme coin leaders showed slight gains; DOGE +1%, SHIB +1%, PEPE +1%, PENGU -1%, TRUMP +1%, SPX +5%.
- Robinhood chain leaders were predominantly in the red as chain volume declines; Pons increased by 4% to $390M; AI fell 1% to $245M; Cashcat dropped 5% to $150M; Pare (+40%), Strategy (+60%), and Raxol (+110%) were among the top movers.
- Top movers in Solana included Cate (+40%), Perpspad (+46%), and Biketyson (+290%).
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Pump led onchain protocols in revenue over the past week with $10.2M, followed by Hyperliquid ($9.9M), Aerodrome ($9.2M), Pons ($8M), and Stonkfun ($7.4M).
- Stonkfun had a record revenue day on Friday with $2.2M, though revenue fell to $1.05M and $900k in the subsequent weekend days.
- Pump introduced Holder Rewards, allowing creators to allocate a portion of fee shares back to token holders.
🚚 NFT Market Update
- NFT leaders remained largely stable; Punks stayed at 29.8 ETH, BAYC decreased by 1% to 6.65 ETH, and Pudgy fell by 3% to 3.46 ETH.
- Top movers included Argonauts (+20%) and Cat Street Broker (+120%).
- Argonauts recorded a sale of 14.5 ETH overnight, pushing the floor price to 0.86 ETH.