A report from Citrini Research warns of an impending economic collapse driven by artificial intelligence, contributing to a sell-off in stocks of software and payment service companies.

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

— Citrini (@Citrini7) February 22, 2026

The report titled "Global Intelligence Crisis" has garnered 24.4 million views on X. It states that AI agents can significantly boost corporate profits while rendering human labor obsolete, leading to a recession.

The report outlines a grim scenario for June 2028:

  • The S&P 500 index has fallen 38% from its all-time high;
  • Unemployment has surpassed 10%;
  • The private credit market is in disarray;
  • Mortgage agreements are "cracking at the seams."

Researchers believe this process is gradual:

  1. Initial layoffs in offices appear positive for markets—margins increase, profits hit records, and wages decline.
  2. Agents evolve and can replicate products in weeks, putting pressure on prices and reducing revenue.
  3. Assistants eliminate business intermediaries, finding cheaper payment methods like stablecoins on low-fee networks.
  4. Layoffs reduce demand as unemployed individuals cut back on spending.
  5. Defaults on loans occur, impacting the insurance sector.
  6. Problems arise in the mortgage market, exacerbating asset sell-offs.
  7. Tax revenues decline, leading to discussions about levies on AI inference or "dividends" from AI infrastructure.

Stock Market Decline

IBM shares experienced their largest single-day drop in 25 years, plummeting by 13.1%.

IBM stock. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Shares of Microsoft, Oracle, and Accenture fell by 3.21%, 4.57%, and 6.58%, respectively. Payment companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express saw declines of 4-7%.

Anxiety heightened following Anthropic's success, as the company announced that Claude can optimize COBOL code, primarily used in IBM systems.

It’s official:

IBM stock, $IBM, just posted its worst day since October 2000 after Anthropic announced that Claude can streamline COBOL code.

Today is the day AI became dystopian for millions of people. pic.twitter.com/OHaVWbZrdT

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 23, 2026

Citrini experts emphasized that the proliferation of AI agents like Anthropic's Claude Code or OpenAI's Codex will lead to an economic shift: a reduced need for human labor, forcing companies to reinvest saved funds into more powerful systems. This creates a feedback loop that accelerates worker displacement and decreases consumer spending.

In February, shares of leading public cybersecurity companies fell after the launch of the AI vulnerability scanner in Claude Code Security.