Investment bank Citigroup has reduced its annual Bitcoin price forecast from $143,000 to $112,000. The target for Ethereum has been revised from $4,304 to $3,175. This was reported by CoinDesk, citing the bank's report.

Document author Alex Saunders attributed the changes to three factors: a slowdown in the development of the regulatory framework in the U.S., a decline in on-chain activity, and lowered expectations for capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The bank has cut its forecast for annual demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs to $10 billion and for Ethereum-based funds to $2.5 billion. Despite the adjustments, Saunders identified inflows into these instruments as the main driver of potential market growth.

He assessed the likelihood of relevant legislation being passed in the U.S. this year at 60%.

Citigroup also presented alternative scenarios for market developments:

  • Bullish scenario: With widespread ETF adoption, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000, and Ethereum to $4,488;
  • Bearish scenario: In the event of a macroeconomic recession, Bitcoin could drop to $58,000, while Ethereum could fall to $1,198.

For Ethereum, Saunders noted additional risks due to weak network activity. Support for the coin could come from the growth of the stablecoin market and the development of the tokenization of real assets sector.

Resistance in the $75,000-$85,000 Range

Head of research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, stated that Bitcoin may face resistance at the $75,000 and $85,000 levels, despite positive trader expectations ahead of the Fed meeting.

The perpetual futures market is dominated by long positions, indicating investor confidence in further growth. Moreno noted that if the rally continues, the first barrier will be at $75,000, which corresponds to the lower boundary of traders' breakeven prices, historically acting as resistance in bear markets.

The next barrier is around $85,000, which previously held the price back in mid-January and October.

Moreno observed a shift in sentiment: the rise in prices above $70,000 led to short liquidations rather than encouraging new long positions.

The dominance of buyers is also confirmed by funding rates. Since March 15, Bitcoin funding has shifted from "extremely negative" values to positive, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. A similar situation is seen with Ethereum.

Despite the optimism, the analyst warned of risks. The price increase has triggered Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. On March 16, the hourly deposit volume on trading platforms reached 6,100 BTC, the highest since February 20. Notably, 63% of the total volume consisted of large transfers. Such a spike could create selling pressure and slow down price growth.

Ethereum's Upward Trend

A steady influx of liquidity into the Ethereum derivatives market indicates the stability of the current upward trend rather than a temporary bounce. This conclusion was reached by CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Arab Chain.

Open Interest Supports the Stability of Ethereum’s Uptrend

“This trend in open interest indicates sustained liquidity inflows into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum’s uptrend rather than indicating a temporary move.” – By @ArabxChain pic.twitter.com/aLYNY0jTH8

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 18, 2026

The expert analyzed the 30-day change in open interest and noted a shift in trader behavior. The metrics vary significantly depending on the trading platform:

  • Bybit: A surge of 2.51 million ETH was recorded, indicating a redistribution of liquidity;
  • Binance: Open interest increased by 11,400 ETH, confirming sustained interest in the asset;
  • Bitfinex and Kraken: A decline was observed, with metrics dropping by 35,700 ETH and 4,300 ETH, respectively;
  • Gate: Activity remains minimal.

According to the analyst, such divergence indicates caution among market participants. Traders are reassessing strategies: some are closing positions to reduce risks, while others are increasing activity on major platforms.

Arab Chain concluded that the high level of open interest confirms investor confidence and willingness to hold positions. This fundamentally supports Ethereum's bullish momentum.

Recall that on March 17, the specialist known as Darkfost reported the return of Bitcoin buyers to leading exchanges.