The bank has revised its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether downwards, citing a halt in ETF inflow expectations, stalled U.S. crypto legislation, and weak investor interest.
By Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Cheyenne Ligon Jul 1, 2026, 1:39 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Citi Lowers 12-Month Bitcoin and Ether Projections Amid ETF Declines. (Pixabay)SummaryShow- Citi reduced its bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and its ether target from $3,175 to $2,240.
- The bank now anticipates zero net ETF inflows over the next year, in contrast to its earlier expectations for increased demand.
- Stalled U.S. legislation, negative market sentiment, and fears regarding digital asset treasury selling have overshadowed favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Citi has adjusted its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin BTC$58,580.68 and ether (ETH) downwards, attributing this to a drop in ETF demand and declining hopes for U.S. legislative progress in the crypto space to rekindle investor interest.
The bank has lowered its bitcoin price forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 and its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175. It now predicts no net inflows into ETFs over the next year, abandoning its previous expectation that regulatory advancements would lead to new institutional investments.
As of the time of publication, bitcoin was priced around $58,400 and ether at $1,570.
Analyst Alex Saunders noted in a report on Tuesday, "The lack of a catalyst for heightened investor engagement leads us to modify our base-case flow expectations to zero for the coming year."
Demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has significantly declined in recent months, removing what has been the primary source of institutional investment in the crypto market since the funds were launched in 2024. In June, the ETFs experienced a historic $4 billion in net outflows, marking the largest monthly withdrawal on record, following a 13-day streak of redemptions that pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time.
This downgrade reflects a significant shift from Citi's earlier outlook, which had anticipated that the passage of U.S. legislation related to digital asset market structure would encourage adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that this timeline has been delayed, leaving the market without a substantial catalyst.
Saunders indicated that ETF inflows remain the primary driver of cryptocurrency prices, with recent demand turning negative as investors become more risk-averse.
The report also highlighted concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies might turn into net sellers of bitcoin. Recent corporate decisions by Strategy intensified these worries, even though they involved relatively minor BTC sales.
Both bitcoin and ether are currently trading below critical technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative investments have shifted towards AI-related sectors.
Citi's revised projections assume stable ETF flows in its base scenario. In a bullish scenario, increased retail and institutional adoption could see bitcoin rise to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. Conversely, in a bearish scenario characterized by recessionary conditions and ongoing ETF outflows, bitcoin could drop to $53,000 and ether to $1,094.
While the bank's equity strategists have adopted a more positive stance on U.S. stocks, which offers some support through the correlation between crypto and equities, the report stated that positive macro factors are insufficient to counteract declining flows.
Despite the lower price targets, ETF flows remain the most crucial element in Citi's valuation model, and any significant turnaround in investor interest or unexpected legislative progress could rapidly alter this outlook.
Read more: Bitcoin inflows slow sharply in 2026 as investors chase AI, Bernstein says
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