Your day-ahead look for Aug. 4, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) continues its downward trend. (TradingView)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
The cryptocurrency market is currently facing several challenges, including a high-profile Coldcard hack, weak institutional interest, and ongoing regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Despite these issues, the market shows no signs of panic, as indicated by the steady decline of bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, known as BVIV. This index reflects the demand for options and hedging strategies that traders seek when they anticipate market fluctuations.
The BVIV has fallen to 36%, marking its lowest point since May 31 and a significant drop from nearly 60% in early June. A market that remains calm amid negative news is often interpreted as bullish, suggesting potential for future gains.
However, it's important to note that volatility tends to revert to the mean; it typically rises after falling below historical averages and decreases when it is considered high. Currently, the BVIV is at levels that have historically acted as a support, indicating a possible upcoming increase in volatility. Traders should be cautious, as any significant rise in volatility could lead to substantial price movements, whether upward or downward.
At present, several factors lean towards a bearish outlook. Notably, institutional demand has been weak. Last week, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $61.53 million, ending a three-week period of modest inflows. Additionally, the market capitalization of Tether (USDT), the leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, has dropped to its lowest since October, and USDC is also on a downward trajectory.
Moreover, the real or inflation-adjusted returns on long-term Treasury notes have reached the highest level since 2008, diminishing the attractiveness of investments in emerging technologies and riskier assets. Furthermore, the passage of the U.S. Clarity Act remains uncertain.
Nonetheless, one positive indicator suggests limited downside risk, linked to the number of bitcoins purchased around current price levels.
“Approximately 155,000 BTC moved into the $62,000-$65,000 cost-basis range, indicating that selling was absorbed by buyers near current prices. This concentration now represents 0.7 percent of the circulating supply and could keep BTC within a certain range until a stronger catalyst emerges,” analysts at Bitfinex noted.
Remain vigilant!
For further insights into today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of significant events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Stocks rise despite Iran tensions, oil up, yen eases (Reuters): European stocks gained alongside U.S. futures, although rising oil prices highlighted market skepticism regarding a swift resolution to U.S.-Iran tensions. The yen saw a slight decrease.
- First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle, investors chase AI returns (CoinDesk): Crypto asset manager Hashdex plans to close and liquidate its $14.7 million spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, potentially marking the first liquidation of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF.
- A new Solana proposal aims to ramp up daily SOL Burns from $47,000 to $650,000 (CoinDesk): Solana validators have begun showing support for a governance proposal that would alter the amount of SOL entering and exiting circulation, which could tighten supply and impact market valuations.
Today’s signal
Market caps for USDT and USDC. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the market caps of USDT and USDC, the two leading dollar-pegged stablecoins.
USDT's market cap has decreased to $183 billion from nearly $190 billion in April. USDC's market cap has fallen from $79.5 billion in March to $72 billion.
In the context of a broader crypto bear market, the declines in USDT and USDC serve as a classic indicator of weak demand: less capital is available for cryptocurrency purchases, liquidity is tighter, and investor risk appetite is low.
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