Bubblemaps has identified 80 bets on U.S. military actions against Iran on Polymarket, with such accuracy that it cannot be attributed to mere luck. In an interview with CoinDesk, CEO Nicolas Wyman stated that if unusual trades are visible to outside observers, they can be tracked by U.S. adversaries.
“To put it bluntly — this could endanger many lives,” he said.
He noted that bets on military operations this year have exceeded $1 billion amid rising geopolitical tensions, creating a new form of insider trading.
Large bets were placed just days before the attacks on Iran on February 28, the elimination of the country's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Nine accounts on Polymarket earned over $2.4 million almost exclusively from bets on U.S. military operations.
“They were betting not only on strikes days before they occurred but also on later dates to maximize profits,” Wyman pointed out.
To avoid drawing attention, these accounts also made small losing bets on February 20. Their accuracy reached 98%. Wyman added that during the strikes on Iran, civilians were checking Polymarket to decide whether to stay in bunkers.
When asked directly about the connection between insiders and the U.S. government, Wyman replied:
“We have no evidence that this is military or even American. The data is suspicious and suggests someone has an unfair informational advantage.”
Congressman Mike Levin tweeted that “the insider trading problem in prediction markets is bigger than anyone could have imagined.” Along with Senator Adam Schiff, he introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban contracts related to war.
The insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known.
— Rep. Mike Levin (@RepMikeLevin) May 15, 2026
The New York Times found 80+ Polymarket accounts showing signs of insider trading, many tied to U.S. military operations, including seven that collectively won $1.4 million on the…
Wyman also suggested that prediction markets could be manipulated:
“The government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and mislead adversaries. Prediction markets are a tool for intelligence and information warfare.”
He added that such platforms not only predict the future but also change it. However, he refrained from blaming the platform itself:
“I don’t want to attack Polymarket. Anyone can use a cheap VPN or buy an account with completed KYC. This is not just a Polymarket issue; it’s an internet-wide problem.”
400 Suspicious Trades
Since the beginning of the year, Kalshi has flagged over 400 suspicious trades — double the number from the entire previous year, according to Reuters. Some of these have been referred to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The volume of abnormal contracts on Polymarket has also significantly increased.
“In the world of classic insider trading, it’s usually not difficult to determine who has access to non-public information. In prediction markets, gathering such data is often impossible,” noted Joseph Grundfest, a professor at Stanford Law School and former SEC commissioner.
Trading volumes on these platforms continue to grow: Kalshi's trading volume has more than tripled in six months, reaching $178 billion. Polymarket's monthly conditional volume for offshore and U.S. platforms in April was approximately $10.3 billion, up from $3.8 billion a year earlier.
At the same time, services are tightening their rules. Recently, they banned federal employees from betting on political campaigns in which they are involved. Regulation of prediction markets has become a contentious issue between the CFTC, which wants to regulate them as derivatives, and individual states.
Investor interest has boosted valuations: Kalshi closed a round at $1 billion with a valuation of $22 billion. Polymarket is in talks for new funding at a $15 billion valuation.
Previously, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the regulator would aggressively pursue insider trades. In response, Kalshi and Polymarket updated their rules to explicitly prohibit bets based on confidential information and illegal tips. Polymarket also removed some military-themed contracts.
“If someone has insider information, they are more likely to use it on a prediction market than on the stock market,” believes Charles Martino, a professor at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto.
Investors are increasingly consulting prediction markets before making trades. These platforms sometimes predict election outcomes and economic decisions more accurately than traditional polls.
Users buy and sell binary contracts of “yes” or “no” on the outcomes of various events — from economic policies to sports.
“These markets allow trading not on the market's reaction to news, but on the news itself. The risk is lower,” explained Vincent Gregoire, a professor at HEC Montreal.
It is worth noting that in April, the U.S. Department of Justice charged active-duty serviceman Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is suspected of using classified information to place bets on Polymarket.