Summary
- Brent crude oil prices topped $100 for the first time in six weeks, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and U.S. military actions against Iranian tankers.
- The probability of crude oil reaching $120 has risen to 56.5% on Myriad, a significant jump from earlier predictions.
- Polymarket indicates a 59% chance that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will hit $100 this month, reflecting a notable increase.
Brent crude oil was priced at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, marking a 3.2% rise and its first time exceeding $100 in six weeks, while West Texas Intermediate was at $96.27. The recent surge in oil prices has sparked heightened activity in prediction markets.
The situation escalated over the weekend, with reports of Houthi rebels attacking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, resulting in 73 injuries. In response, U.S. Central Command conducted strikes on five Iranian oil tankers after targeting three others, following missile attacks on a U.S. warship.
On the prediction platform Myriad, the likelihood of crude oil reaching $120 has increased to 56.5%, up 15.1 points since early September. This marks a shift from a previously balanced prediction landscape, where forecasts for $55 had dominated for much of the summer. The trading volume on Myriad has reached $12.7 million since March.
