Bond market volatility has reached its highest level since March, while the bitcoin VIX, BVIV, and Wall Street's VIX are close to their yearly lows.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Omkar Godbole6 minutes ago2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on MOVE vs VIX (TradingView)SummaryShow- The MOVE index has surged from approximately 80 on Tuesday to 104, marking its highest point since March, as increasing energy prices and bond yields heighten inflation worries.
- Bitcoin and S&P 500 volatility indices remain stable.
- The correlation between MOVE and VIX over the past 20 days has turned slightly negative for the first time since April 2024, indicating that rising bond volatility has not yet affected equity markets.
The bond market is signaling concerns that have not yet impacted bitcoin and U.S. stock markets.
The MOVE index, which gauges anticipated volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, increased from around 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, its highest level since it reached 199 in March, according to CoinDesk data.
Volmex’s 30-day annualized bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, remains low at about 37, close to its year-to-date low of 35. This index represents bitcoin options traders' predictions for price fluctuations over the upcoming month. In contrast, the Cboe VIX, which monitors expected volatility in the S&P 500, is lingering near its year-to-date low of 14. Both markets are not reflecting a significant demand for volatility.
This divergence suggests that both bitcoin and stocks are showing underlying resilience. Typically, increased volatility in Treasury notes, which are foundational to global finance and credit creation, tends to tighten financial conditions and deter risk-taking in financial markets.
This divergence is occurring amid rising government bond yields worldwide. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil and diesel prices higher, complicating the inflation outlook and raising questions about how much more central banks might need to tighten their policies. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly reached 5.2% on Thursday before settling at 5.163%.
When the MOVE index was last at this level in March, the S&P 500 was around 6,350. It has since climbed to 7,704, reflecting an increase of approximately 21%. However, bond traders are currently paying significantly more for protection against interest rate fluctuations.
Over a 20-day period, the correlation between VIX and MOVE has decreased to −0.06, becoming negative for the first time since April 2024, though that figure is close to zero. The correlation between BVIV and MOVE is more distinctly negative at −0.37, one of its lowest levels in years. As bond volatility rises, bitcoin’s expected volatility remains near its annual low.
As CoinDesk noted earlier this week, there is little consistent relationship between rising yields and bitcoin’s returns.
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