Bloomberg's Mike McGlone forecasts Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2026 amid economic recession risks.
Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has forecasted that Bitcoin's price could plunge to $10,000 by 2026, potentially indicating a recession in the U.S. economy. In a recent analysis, McGlone emphasized that a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market could be a precursor to broader economic challenges.
“Soon we should hear from stock market analysts about a healthy correction following the collapse of cryptocurrencies. The mantra 'buy the dips' may no longer be relevant,” McGlone stated.
He outlined several risk factors, including:
- The U.S. market capitalization to GDP ratio reaching a century-high;
- 180-day volatility of major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting an eight-year low;
- A decline in enthusiasm for Donald Trump's crypto policies, suggesting that “the bubble is bursting;”
- Rising gold and silver prices, which could influence other markets due to increased volatility.
McGlone illustrated his points with a chart comparing the S&P 500's performance to Bitcoin, noting that both metrics are currently below 7,000 points. He believes that Bitcoin's high beta makes it vulnerable to declines if stock performance wanes. His analysis suggests an initial target of 5,600 for the S&P 500, which would equate to a Bitcoin price of $56,000.
McGlone's initial warning about Bitcoin potentially falling to $10,000 came in December when prices were above $86,000. He reiterated this forecast in early February when Bitcoin was trading around $79,000 before dropping below that threshold. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has decreased nearly 23%, and February could mark its fifth consecutive month of decline.
Criticism of McGlone's Forecast
Market analyst Jason Fernandez, co-founder of AdLunam, criticized McGlone's predictions, arguing that they imply a necessary collapse of market extremes and a proportional crash for Bitcoin. He stated, “This is a false comparison and a bias focused on a single path of development.”
Fernandez suggested that a macroeconomic slowdown could instead lead to a consolidation of cryptocurrencies within the $40,000 to $50,000 range rather than a drastic drop to $10,000. He noted that such a significant decline would require a "real systemic event" that drastically reduces liquidity and triggers a major stock market crash, which he considers unlikely without a severe credit shock or political misstep.
Meanwhile, analysts at K33 Research believe that Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 on February 6 may represent a local bottom before a consolidation phase, even as CryptoQuant expressed skepticism about the end of the correction. Standard Chartered has also projected a drop in Bitcoin's price to $50,000.
