In 2026, the price of the first cryptocurrency could plummet to $10,000, signaling a recession in the U.S. economy. This was stated by Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Collapsing Bitcoin/Cryptos May Guide the Next Recession —

"Healthy Correction" is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos. The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over, here's why:

— US stock… pic.twitter.com/fPPc2fV3EU

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) February 15, 2026

"Soon we should hear from stock market analysts (who risk losing their jobs if they don't support this) about a healthy correction following the collapse of cryptocurrencies. The mantra 'buy the dips,' which has worked since 2008, may no longer be relevant," the expert wrote.

He cited several factors indicating an increased level of risk:

  • The market capitalization to GDP ratio in the U.S. is at a century-high;
  • The 180-day volatility of key indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest in eight years;
  • The euphoria surrounding Donald Trump's crypto policies is fading — "the bubble is bursting";
  • Gold and silver are rising at rates not seen in about half a century, and volatility spikes in these assets could affect other markets.

McGlone presented a chart comparing the performance of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin (divided by 10). Both metrics fluctuate below 7,000 points. He believes that the highly beta-dependent cryptocurrency is unlikely to maintain this level when the metric weakens for stocks.

The analyst set a target of 5,600 for the "initial normal return" of the index, which translates to $56,000 for Bitcoin.

According to his base scenario, the digital asset could retreat to $10,000 depending on the peak of the U.S. stock market.

In December, McGlone first warned that Bitcoin could fall to this level. At that time, prices were above $86,000. The expert noted that a likely crash of high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies could trigger an economic recession in the United States.

In early February, McGlone reiterated his forecast. Bitcoin was trading near $79,000 and subsequently fell below that mark.

The digital gold has dropped nearly 23% since the beginning of the year. With February's current figure at -14%, it could mark the fifth consecutive month of decline for the cryptocurrency.

Source: CoinGlass.

McGlone's Scenario Questioned

Jason Fernandez, co-founder of AdLunam and market analyst, commented for CoinDesk, noting that the Bloomberg strategist's thesis implies:

  • Market extremes must resolve through a general collapse;
  • Bitcoin's beta guarantees a proportional crash.

"This is a false comparison and a bias focused on a single path of development. Markets can also eliminate excess over time, through rotation or inflation reduction," the expert stated.

According to Fernandez, a macroeconomic slowdown could lead to consolidation or restructuring of cryptocurrencies within the $40,000-50,000 range.

A drop to $10,000 would likely require a "real systemic event" that leads to a sharp reduction in liquidity, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging of funds, and an uncontrolled stock market crash.

"This implies a recession plus financial stress, not just a slowdown in growth. In the absence of a credit shock or a political misstep that drains global liquidity, such a collapse remains an unlikely risk factor," he emphasized.

It is worth noting that analysts at K33 Research suggested that Bitcoin's drop on February 6 to $60,000 was a local bottom before a consolidation phase. However, CryptoQuant doubted the end of the correction.

Standard Chartered has suggested a drop in digital gold to $50,000.