MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailBlackRock warns of potential energy crisis as May CPI indicates rising inflation

BlackRock is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI report as a significant indicator of the impact of U.S.-Iran tensions on inflation.

By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Stephen Alpher Jun 9, 2026, 12:58 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on BlackRock is closely monitoring U.S. CPI. (Markus Winkler/Unsplash)

Key Points:

  • BlackRock is focused on the upcoming May U.S. inflation report as a key indicator of how the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and potential energy crisis may be influencing persistent inflation.
  • Analysts predict that the consumer price index will increase by 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest rate since April 2023, significantly surpassing the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, which may heighten expectations for additional interest rate hikes.
  • Prolonged higher borrowing costs could intensify bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for bitcoin, while a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate inflation driven by energy costs as U.S. oil reserves approach four-decade lows.

BlackRock is paying close attention to the May U.S. inflation figures, which could provide a clearer indication of how tensions between the U.S. and Iran are affecting already persistent inflation rates.

The BlackRock Investment Institute noted in its weekly market commentary, "We are closely monitoring the May U.S. inflation data to better understand the effects of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict on inflation. The full impact of this shock has yet to be seen and will depend on its progression."

The May consumer price index (CPI) is set for release on Wednesday at 08:30 am ET, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, marking the fastest rise since April 2023, up from 3.8% in April.

This anticipated uptick would serve as another indication that inflation is remaining stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed's next move may be an interest rate increase rather than cuts, which had been expected earlier this year.

Higher interest rates tend to discourage investments in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the forecasted CPI rise could amplify bearish pressures in the crypto market, where bitcoin has already experienced a downturn, falling nearly 14% to below $60,000 last week.

According to BlackRock, a significant risk is the possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz extending into July. Such an event could bring the energy crisis to the forefront of inflation concerns, particularly as U.S. oil inventories may hit their lowest levels in 40 years.

"We believe that a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz into July could significantly highlight the effects of the energy shock, especially given the potential for U.S. oil inventories to reach four-decade lows," the firm stated.

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