U.S. strikes on Iranian territory have turned cryptocurrencies into the "main global trading platform," according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

The military operation was reported on the night of February 28, when traditional stock exchanges were closed. In response to geopolitical events, investors flocked to 24/7 on-chain systems.

"Almost all of Sunday, the on-chain space remained the center of the financial world. For the first time in my memory, crypto markets became just a market, period," Hougan wrote.

This shift in activity to decentralized environments led to a sharp increase in metrics on specialized platforms:

  • Trading volumes for futures on oil and cryptocurrencies surged on the Hyperliquid exchange;
  • The daily turnover of Tether's tokenized gold (XAUT) exceeded $300 million;
  • Prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket set new trading volume records;
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum attracted heightened attention from traders.

Hougan acknowledged that the events of that weekend forced him to reassess his forecasts. Previously, he believed that on-chain markets would develop on the periphery for the next 5-10 years. Now, he is confident in their rapid integration into traditional finance.

According to the expert, banks, hedge funds, and corporate traders have no choice but to create wallets for stablecoins, learn to trade on DEX, and explore tokenized assets.

"Even if you don't do it, others will," the Bitwise director concluded.

The Impact of Bitcoin on Traditional Investment Portfolios

Hougan and quantitative analyst Malika Kolar have also updated their research on the role of the first cryptocurrency in a classic investment portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. The experts analyzed market data from January 2014 to December 2025.

New study update: Adding bitcoin to a 60/40 portfolio has increased cumulative and risk-adjusted returns in 100% of three-year holding periods.

The win rate over two years is 93%!

Updated study from @Bitwise with data through year-end 2025. Link and details below. pic.twitter.com/ekkgiv5HQu

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) March 3, 2026

The specialists concluded that Bitcoin effectively enhances investment returns when adjusted for risk. However, it requires strict adherence to three rules: holding the asset long-term, regular rebalancing, and strict limits on allocation.

During the studied period, the basic 60/40 strategy yielded a cumulative return of 127.9% (7.1% annualized). Allocating just 2.5% to Bitcoin (with quarterly rebalancing) would increase the result to 187.4%. A 5% allocation would double the final return to 258.5%. Meanwhile, a 2.5% allocation minimally affects the maximum drawdown: 23.7% compared to 22.1% for the classic strategy.

Source: Bitwise.

Bitwise emphasized that the optimal investment horizon is three years or more. The longer the position is held, the more stable the results. Over a one-year period, the cryptocurrency improved portfolio returns in 76% of cases, over two years the figure rose to 94%, and for any three-year periods, the success rate reached 100%.

Due to the asset's high volatility, failing to lock in profits significantly increases risks. A buy-and-hold strategy without rebalancing, with a 2.5% Bitcoin allocation, could yield 421.4% returns but would increase the maximum drawdown of the portfolio to 50.9%. Analysts recommend quarterly rebalancing as the optimal solution, maintaining high profits while keeping volatility within normal limits.

Analysts noted a non-linear relationship between the amount of Bitcoin in the portfolio and risk metrics. An allocation of 0.5% to 4.5% has little impact on the maximum drawdown of investments. However, once the threshold of 5% is crossed, potential losses begin to rise sharply, and the increase in the Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk) slows down.

In conclusion, company representatives emphasized that past successes do not guarantee future results. However, statistics from the past decade confirm that a moderate addition of the first cryptocurrency (up to 5%) structurally improves the performance of any diversified portfolio.

Recall that on March 2, analysts from the London Crypto Club stated that the U.S. and Israel's military operation against Iran would positively impact the price of the first cryptocurrency.