Experts have labeled the price level of $1 million as a "baseline" for the cryptocurrency.

The resilience of digital gold during the war in Iran is not contrary to a risk-averse regime but rather a direct consequence of it. This view was shared by Bitwise's investment director Matt Hougan and research head Ryan Rasmussen.

Bitcoin is apolitical money. When nations fight, the incentive to use apolitical money goes up.

Since the Iran conflict began in late February:

— Bitcoin: +12%
— S&P 500: -1%
— Gold: -10%

Expect bitcoin increasingly to act as a hedge against geopolitical chaos. pic.twitter.com/JrzXMW0zNd

— Bitwise (@Bitwise) April 14, 2026

Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin's price has risen by 12%, while the S&P 500 and gold have dropped by 1% and 10%, respectively.

This trend contradicts the notion that the leading cryptocurrency behaves like a high-risk asset during geopolitical shocks. However, experts argue that this perspective is misguided.

“Chaos is a ladder,” they wrote.

According to them, Bitcoin's rally is a result of the conflict: cracks in the global financial system increase the appeal of non-sovereign money.

Two Bets in One

Hougan and Rasmussen described the first cryptocurrency as "two bets in one." The first is well-known: competition with gold for the status of a store of value. The second—its role as a currency in international trade—once seemed unlikely but is now rapidly gaining traction.

Experts attribute this shift to the financial infrastructure becoming a weapon. Following Russia's disconnection from SWIFT in 2022, trade increasingly occurs through alternative systems, particularly Chinese ones.

As a result, the dollar is gradually losing ground on the periphery, creating a niche for non-dollar payment systems.

Recent events have only intensified this trend, the specialists noted. Reports of Iran's willingness to accept Bitcoin for oil transit payments signal a desire to bypass traditional systems—even if only experimentally.

Bitwise acknowledged that sanctions still apply and that blockchain transparency limits illegal use. However, the broader signal is more significant: geopolitical fragmentation is pushing countries to seek apolitical alternatives.

$1 Million as a Starting Point

Experts believe these changes directly impact Bitcoin's valuation. They compared the cryptocurrency's monetary scenario to an out-of-the-money call option: its price rises with the likelihood of adoption and global volatility.

“The probabilistic part is simple: a call option to buy a stock at $120 becomes more valuable when the stock rises from $100 to $110. Volatility is trickier, but the principle is the same: if a $100 stock becomes twice as volatile, the chances of reaching $120 increase—simply due to stronger fluctuations,” explained Hougan and Rasmussen.

Both conditions are met: the conflict has undermined the global currency order while simultaneously bringing Bitcoin closer to functioning as a real currency.

The role of digital gold is changing: Bitwise expects Bitcoin to become a hedge against geopolitical chaos rather than merely a speculative asset dependent on liquidity.

This also alters long-term expectations. If the asset establishes itself as both a store of value and a unit of account, current price targets may be underestimated. Experts now consider a price of $1 million as a baseline rather than a ceiling.

As of this writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $75,200—its highest since early February. In the last 24 hours, the coin's price surged by 4.5%.

For reference, macro analyst Jordi Visser identified breaking the $76,000 mark as a key condition for solidifying a bullish trend.