The fourth quarter of 2025 likely marked the end of the bear cycle, according to Bitwise.
The latest Bitwise Crypto Market Review just dropped—and it’s the most important one we’ve ever published.
— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) January 21, 2026
Why? Because it shows a tension in crypto markets that has historically signaled a bear-market bottom (see Q1 2023).
Receipts: During Q4 2025…
— ETH’s price fell 29% ……
Matt Hougan, the investment director at Bitwise, compared the current situation to the first quarter of 2023, when the market was recovering from the FTX exchange collapse, and Bitcoin's price surged from $16,000 to $98,000 by early 2025.
According to Hougan, a similar divergence is occurring now: asset prices are declining while fundamental indicators are improving. He described this as a classic sign of a market bottom.
Bitwise highlighted four key trends from the past quarter:
- Record Activity. The number of transactions on Ethereum and layer-two networks reached historic highs.
- Revenue Growth. Crypto companies are seeing revenue growth outpace that of many traditional stock market players.
- Stablecoin Boom. The market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $300 billion, setting a new all-time record.
- DeFi Success. Trading volume on the decentralized exchange Uniswap now consistently exceeds that of Coinbase.
Market opinions are divided. Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, forecasts a challenging year due to tariffs and policy issues. Meanwhile, analysts at VanEck are more optimistic, predicting a rise in risk assets as early as the first quarter of 2026.
As potential catalysts for growth, Bitwise mentioned the passage of the Clarity Act, a "supercycle of stablecoins," the appointment of a new Fed chair, and access to spot ETFs for clients of major brokerage firms.
In January, macroeconomist Luke Gromen warned of the risk of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 due to the trade war.