Bitwise suggests the bear market in crypto may have ended in Q4 2025, citing improved fundamentals and record activity in the sector.
Bitwise has suggested that the bear market in cryptocurrency may have concluded in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a pivotal moment for the sector.
In our latest Crypto Market Review, we identify signs traditionally associated with the end of a bear market, reminiscent of the recovery observed in early 2023.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise's investment director, drew parallels between the current market conditions and the aftermath of the FTX exchange collapse, which saw Bitcoin’s price rebound from $16,000 to $98,000 by early 2025. He noted a similar scenario unfolding now: while asset prices are declining, fundamental indicators are showing improvement—a classic sign of a market bottom.
Bitwise outlined four significant trends from Q4 2025:
- Record Activity: Ethereum and layer-two networks experienced historic transaction volumes.
- Revenue Growth: Crypto firms are witnessing revenue growth that surpasses many traditional stock market entities.
- Stablecoin Surge: The stablecoin market capitalization has crossed $300 billion, setting a new record.
- DeFi Performance: Trading volumes on the decentralized exchange Uniswap have consistently outperformed those of Coinbase.
Market sentiment remains mixed. Fundstrat's Tom Lee warns of a challenging year ahead due to tariffs and policy uncertainties, while analysts from VanEck express optimism for a potential rise in risk assets as soon as Q1 2026.
Bitwise highlighted several potential catalysts for market growth, including the Clarity Act, a significant increase in stablecoin activity, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, and the introduction of spot ETFs for major brokerage clients.
However, macroeconomist Luke Gromen cautioned that Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 amid ongoing trade tensions.
