The current state and future of the crypto industry are shaped by the rapid rise in gold prices and uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act legislation. This insight was shared by Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise.
Gold Surge and Crisis of Trust in Institutions
In 2025, the precious metal increased by 65%. Since the beginning of 2026, its price has risen another 16%, surpassing $5000 per ounce.
According to the expert, this trend "demonstrates a profound shift." He attributes it to years of monetary expansion, rising national debt, and a global crisis of trust in centralized institutions.
Hougan identifies the key driver of this rally as the massive gold purchases by central banks following the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022. This prompted countries to reconsider storing assets in jurisdictions that could confiscate them.
“The trend is gaining momentum. Last week, German economists urged their government to withdraw gold stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and 'repatriate' it to Germany. They no longer trust the U.S. to safeguard their reserves,” he noted.
This is where the fundamental value of cryptocurrencies, which are resistant to censorship and do not require intermediaries, becomes apparent, according to Bitwise's CIO.
Uncertainty Surrounding the Clarity Act
The second critical factor is the fate of the Clarity Act, which aims to divide regulatory authority over the crypto market between the SEC and CFTC.
Currently, the probability of the bill's passage has dropped from 80% to 50% in market predictions.
This decline followed criticism from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who opposed the current version of the bill due to its ban on paying interest on stablecoins.
Hougan outlined two scenarios:
- Passage. A sharp rally effect, as investors begin to price in guaranteed growth of stablecoins and tokenization.
- Failure. The industry would have about three years to integrate cryptocurrencies into everyday life and traditional finance. Success would force regulators to adapt, while failure would leave the sector vulnerable to abrupt policy shifts.
“I remain optimistic about the passage of the Clarity Act. So far, this administration has kept its campaign promises to the crypto industry, and the Clarity Act is one of them. But if it is not passed, I believe we need to prepare for a slower ascent,” the expert concluded.
It’s worth noting that Bitwise announced the end of the bear market.