Your day-ahead look for July 28, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 28, 2026, 11:37 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (harryloya/Pixabay)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Despite Bitcoin BTC$63,384.15 and Ethereum (ETH) facing downward pressure, both maintain prices above their 50-day moving averages, which is typically viewed as a positive indicator. In contrast, the broader cryptocurrency market is not faring as well.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is commonly used to assess short-term price trends. When prices rise above this level, it suggests a potential increase in bullish momentum. Currently, only 29 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their respective 50-day averages, indicating a predominantly bearish market sentiment.
When compared to the Nasdaq 100, the situation appears even bleaker, with 47 stocks in that index surpassing their 50-day SMAs as of Monday.
This indicates that the stability observed since Bitcoin's decline below $58,000 on June 1 has not yet influenced the wider cryptocurrency market. However, there is some optimism, as Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin, hinting that other cryptocurrencies may soon experience increased demand.
The upcoming interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday is crucial, as it may provide insights into future rate changes, although Chair Kevin Warsh has been notably reserved about offering forward guidance.
Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, stated, "With a September hike now fully priced in by futures, we think that the bar for a hawkish surprise that meaningfully boosts the dollar is high." This suggests that any hawkish surprises could also negatively impact Bitcoin, given the inverse relationship between BTC and the Dollar Index (DXY). Analysts at Marex noted that forthcoming U.S. core PCE inflation and GDP data could also lead to market volatility, particularly since progress on the Clarity Act has stalled.
"The one crypto-specific prop just fell away; the Senate shelved the CLARITY Act to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill, so a vote is unlikely before the final days ahead of the August recess. The catalyst meant to unlock institutional buying is parked," they said in an email. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- U.S. Senate puts off crypto Clarity Act for now as it focuses limited bandwidth elsewhere (CoinDesk): The U.S. Senate has temporarily shelved the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to prioritize legislation concerning Russian sanctions and federal nominations.
- Inside the CME and CFTC’s battle over onchain perpetual futures (CoinDesk): Last month, the CME Group filed a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, challenging its decision to allow Kalshi and Coinbase to list crypto perpetual contracts. A significant federal court ruling is anticipated, which could shape the U.S. approach to this emerging sector.
- Oil touches over one-week low as pause in attacks brings hope of U.S. and Iran deal (Reuters): Oil prices have continued to decline, hitting their lowest levels in over a week amid rising expectations for a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures fell to $85.83, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to $80.63.
- World shares are mixed, while South Korea’s Kospi sinks nearly 11% on heavy selling of chipmakers (AP): The South Korean Kospi index fell nearly 11% as stocks of computer-chip manufacturers were heavily sold off due to concerns that the AI boom may be a bubble. In contrast, European shares rose and U.S. equity futures showed mixed results.
Today’s signal
The MOVE Index is rising. (TradingView)The MOVE Index, which reflects expected volatility in the bond market, has increased recently from 65 points to 77 points. A continued rise in this index could create challenges for risk assets.
This is significant because U.S. Treasury notes are foundational to global finance, and heightened volatility in these markets often leads to financial tightening, discouraging risk-taking behavior.
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Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Markets have shifted since June, but Binance retains a significant share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and attracted net inflows in early July, while the overall market experienced outflows.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 22, 2026Markets have shifted since June, but Binance retains a significant share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and attracted net inflows in early July, while the overall market experienced outflows.
Why it matters:
Markets have shifted since June, but Binance retains a significant share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and attracted net inflows in early July, while the overall market experienced outflows.
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